Dear Reader,

Following last week’s technical outlook for EUR/USD, XAU/USD, and DE40, we are pleased to report that our analysis proved remarkably accurate. The market moved in lockstep with our identified scenarios, validating the structural levels and momentum shifts we highlighted in our March 9–13 forecast. Below is a concise review of how the predictions aligned with actual price action, along with a look ahead to the coming week.

EUR/USD: A Textbook Bearish Breakdown

Our primary thesis for the Euro was a short-term bearish continuation, driven by a confirmed downtrend structure and a bearish EMA crossover. The market executed this script with precision.

Resistance Validation: We identified a critical supply zone between 1.1640 and 1.1690. As predicted, price rallied to approximately 1.1660 around March 11 before encountering heavy selling pressure. This rejection marked the turning point for the week.

Momentum & Targets: Our base case projected a drop toward 1.1500. While we correctly identified this as a major psychological support, the momentum was stronger than anticipated. The pair didn’t just touch 1.1500; it smashed through it, eventually finding a low near 1.1420.

Trade Performance: The "Bearish EMA Pullback" setup (entry 1.1660–1.1680) would have captured the entire leg down. Conversely, the "Counter-Trend Bounce" suggested at 1.1550 proved risky, as the price sliced through this level without a significant rebound, reinforcing the strength of the downtrend.

Key Takeaway: The market respected our resistance levels perfectly, but the breakdown momentum exceeded our conservative estimates, highlighting the importance of trailing stops in strong trending environments.

XAU/USD (Gold): The Range Breakout

For Gold, we anticipated a period of consolidation between 5,100 and 5,220, with a decisive breakout determining the next major move. The week began with range-bound behavior, but the ending was dramatic.

The Setup: Price oscillated within our defined range for the first half of the week. We noted that a break below 5,100 would trigger a bearish correction targeting 5,000.

The Breakdown: On March 16, the market delivered a violent breakdown. A massive sell-off shattered the 5,100 support, cascading down to test the 5,000 structural level (wicking as low as 4,980).

Trade Performance: Our "Resistance Rejection Short" (entry 5,210–5,230) on March 11 was a high-probability win. More significantly, the "Breakdown Momentum" short, triggered by a 4H close below 5,100, resulted in a substantial gain as the price hit our final target of 5,000 exactly.

Key Takeaway: Patience in the range paid off. The analysis correctly identified that the 5,100 floor was the critical level to watch; once breached, the path of least resistance was clearly downward.

DE40 (DAX): The Failed Rally

The German index presented a classic "bear market rally" scenario. We predicted a short-term bearish bias, expecting any rally into the 23,900–24,050 zone to be sold into.

The Rally & Rejection: True to our forecast, the DAX rallied aggressively from the lows to test the 24,000 mark on March 11. This zone acted as a formidable ceiling, with sellers stepping in immediately to push prices back down.

Support Resilience: We identified 23,300–23,350 as a structural floor. The price tested this level multiple times (March 12, 13, and 16) and held firm, validating our "Counter-Trend Bounce" long setup.

Outcome: While the intraday volatility was high, the weekly close remained under pressure, confirming that the broader trend remains bearish despite the mid-week recovery attempt.

Key Takeaway: The DAX demonstrated that in a downtrend, rallies into EMA resistance are often the best opportunities to re-enter short positions, provided key support levels like 23,300 remain intact.

Looking Ahead: Next Week’s Newsletter

The accuracy of last week’s review underscores the importance of adhering to market structure and key liquidity zones. Whether it was the EUR/USD crash, the Gold breakdown, or the DAX rejection, the levels we mapped out served as a reliable roadmap.

For the upcoming week, we are already analyzing the new price action to identify fresh liquidity zones, potential trend reversals, and continuation patterns. We will be looking closely at:

EUR/USD: Potential stabilization near 1.1400 or a further extension if bearish momentum persists.

XAU/USD: Whether the 5,000 level holds as a major support or if a deeper correction is imminent.

DE40: The battle between the 23,300 support and the 24,000 resistance to determine the next directional move.

Stay tuned for the Weekly Technical Outlook for March 16–20, where we will break down these scenarios with updated charts and actionable trade ideas.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves significant risk.

Best regards,

HermesFX