Weekly Technical Outlook – EUR/USD, XAU/USD & DE40 (Mar 9‑13 2026)

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Hi Reader,

Market Structure

• Transition from consolidation to a bearish trend starting ≈ Mar 1.
• Lower highs & lower lows confirmed; 9 EMA stays below 18 EMA.

Key Levels

• Support: 1.1600‑1.1610 1.1550‑1.1560 1.1500
• Resistance: 1.1640‑1.1650 1.1675‑1.1690 1.1740‑1.1760

EMA Interpretation

• Bearish crossover around Mar 1; price repeatedly rejected the EMA cluster.

Liquidity Zones

• Sell‑side: below 1.1550 & 1.1500
• Buy‑side: above 1.1680 & 1.1750

Scenario Outlook (Mar 9‑13)

1. Bearish Continuation (base case): Retrace to EMA zone → downside toward 1.1550.
2. Range Consolidation: 1.1550 – 1.1680.
3. Short‑Covering Rally: Break above 1.1700 → targets 1.1750‑1.1800.

Trade Ideas (illustrative only)

• Bearish EMA Pullback: Entry 1.1660‑1.1680, SL 1.1725, Targets 1.1600 → 1.1560 → 1.1500.
• Breakdown Continuation: 4H close < 1.1595, SL 1.1635, Targets 1.1560 → 1.1520 → 1.1500.
• Counter‑Trend Bounce: Entry 1.1545‑1.1560, SL 1.1515, Targets 1.1620 → 1.1670.

Weekly Price Map

Technical Bias

Short‑term bearish – downtrend structure, EMA alignment, and failed attempts to retake moving averages dominate the outlook.

XAU/USD (Gold) – 4‑Hour Chart (Feb 26 – Mar 6)

Market Structure

• Phase 1 (Uptrend): Higher highs/lows, price above both EMAs.
• Phase 2 (Climax & Reversal): Parabolic rise → sharp bearish impulse around Mar 2‑3.
• Phase 3 (Consolidation): Range ~5,100‑5,200, EMAs flattening.

Key Levels

• Support: 5,100‑5,110 5,050‑5,060 5,000
• Resistance: 5,200‑5,210 5,260‑5,280 5,350‑5,380

EMA Interpretation

• 9 EMA sits just below 18 EMA; indicates equilibrium after the recent shock.

Liquidity Zones

• Sell‑side: below 5,100 5,050 5,000
• Buy‑side: above 5,210 5,280 5,360

Scenario Outlook (Mar 9‑13)

1. Range Continuation (most likely): 5,100 – 5,220.
2. Bullish Breakout: Sustained > 5,220 → targets 5,280 → 5,350.
3. Bearish Correction: Break < 5,100 → targets 5,050 → 5,000.

Trade Ideas (illustrative only)

• Range Support Long: Entry 5,100‑5,110, SL 5,060, Targets 5,180 → 5,210.
• Resistance Rejection Short: Entry 5,210‑5,230, SL 5,280, Targets 5,150 → 5,110.
• Breakout Continuation (Long): 4H close > 5,220, SL 5,170, Targets 5,280 → 5,350.
• Breakdown Momentum (Short): 4H close < 5,100, SL 5,160, Targets 5,050 → 5,000.

Weekly Price Map

Technical Bias

Neutral / Range‑bound – post‑volatility consolidation with EMA compression; direction will likely emerge after a decisive break of either 5,100 or 5,220.

DE40 (DAX) – 4‑Hour Chart (Feb 27 – Mar 6)

Market Structure

• Sharp sell‑off from ~25,350 → ~23,300.
• 9 EMA below 18 EMA since the breakdown; price repeatedly rejected the EMA zone, confirming bearish momentum.

Key Levels

• Support: 23,650‑23,600 23,300‑23,350 23,000‑23,050
• Resistance: 23,900‑23,950 24,150‑24,250 24,450‑24,500 25,300‑25,350

EMA Interpretation

• EMA bearish crossover reinforces the downtrend; price remains below both averages.

Liquidity Zones

• Sell‑side: Below 23,300 (crash low) and 23,000.
• Buy‑side: Around 23,950 (EMA resistance) and 24,200 (short‑covering area).

Scenario Outlook (Mar 9‑13)

1. Bearish Continuation (≈ 60 %): Rally into EMA resistance, then sellers re‑enter; target 23,300 → 23,000.
2. Consolidation (≈ 30 %): 23,600 – 24,200 range pending macro cues.
3. Strong Recovery (≈ 10 %): Break above 24,500, opening upside potential.

Trade Ideas (illustrative only)

• Bearish EMA Pullback: Entry 23,900‑24,050, SL 24,250, Targets 23,650 → 23,350 → 23,050.
• Breakdown Continuation: 4H close < 23,600, SL 23,820, Targets 23,350 → 23,050 → 22,800.
• Counter‑Trend Bounce (Aggressive): Hold 23,300‑23,350, SL 23,150, Targets 23,900 → 24,200.

Weekly Price Map

Technical Bias

Short‑term bearish – lower highs, EMA crossover, and lack of a credible rebound keep downside pressure high.

Best
FX Hermes