How Our DE40, EUR/USD & Gold Setups Performed

Dear trader,

The week of May 4–8 delivered exactly the macro fireworks we warned about in our outlook. The calendar was loaded from the start — RBA on Tuesday, a drumbeat of Fed speeches mid-week, ongoing US–Iran ceasefire speculation — and it all culminated in Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls, the single most anticipated data point of the month. As anticipated, the NFP outcome proved decisive, unlocking strong directional moves across all three instruments we covered.

Here is a full accounting of how the week unfolded against our published scenarios for DE40, EUR/USD, and XAU/USD — what played out, what didn’t, and what every outcome teaches us.

1. Germany 40 (DE40) — The Bullish Surge That Ran Out of Road

Verdict: Mixed — Bullish target hit, then reversed sharply

The Outlook

Our bias for the DE40 was moderately bullish as long as the index defended the 24,112 level (200-day MA). We identified Idea 1 — a 1-hour close above 24,400 with a 9 EMA / 18 EMA golden cross — as the primary long trigger, targeting 24,600 first and 24,800 as the extended objective, with a stop below 24,250. We explicitly flagged the MA Ribbon cluster as a key dynamic reference and cautioned that Friday’s NFP release would be the critical variable for the week’s direction.

What Happened

The week opened near 24,380 and the DE40 wasted little time. Driven by a wave of risk-on sentiment following the RBA decision and incrementally dovish Fed commentary mid-week, the index staged a powerful bullish move through Wednesday and into Thursday, surging all the way to the 25,100 area — a clean breakout well above the 24,600 first target and pressing directly against the 24,800–25,000 structural resistance band we had flagged.

The 1-hour chart tells the story in vivid detail. The MA Ribbon (9 EMA, 50 SMA, 100 SMA, 18 EMA) provided dynamic support throughout the advance, with price riding above it in a near-perfect trend structure from May 5 through May 7. The golden cross trigger on the 1-hour chart fired early in the week, and those who acted on it were rewarded with a move of over 700 points from the consolidation base near 23,900.

However, the picture changed sharply into the second half of the week. From the ~25,100 high, a swift reversal took hold as the NFP print introduced volatility and profit-taking accelerated. By Friday’s close, the DE40 had retraced back to approximately 24,380–24,395 — essentially returning to where the week began. The 100 SMA is now flattening and beginning to act as resistance, a clear warning that the short-term trend has shifted from bullish to corrective.

Trade Performance

Idea 1 (the primary bullish setup) triggered cleanly and hit both the 24,600 and 24,800 targets, with price extending further to ~25,100 intraweek. This was a fully profitable scenario for those who entered on the 1-hour close above 24,400. Idea 2 (the bearish alternative, a close below 24,100) never triggered, as 24,112 held as firm support throughout the week. Idea 3 (range-playing 24,100–24,600) was rendered suboptimal by the scale of the bullish breakout above range.

The key lesson here is in position management. The bullish scenario was correct and delivered exceptional returns, but the speed and completeness of the late-week reversal from 25,100 back to 24,395 underscores why trailing stops or partial profit-taking near the 24,800–25,000 resistance band — a zone we explicitly flagged — was essential. Traders who held the full position into Friday without locking in gains surrendered a significant portion of open profits.

2. EUR/USD — The NFP Breakout That Changed Everything

Verdict: Win — Bullish scenario confirmed, NFP-driven breakout above 1.1775

The Outlook

Our EUR/USD bias entering the week was neutral-to-bearish, with Idea 1 favouring a sell on a break below 1.1700 targeting 1.1640 and 1.1600. However, we were clear that Idea 2 — a bullish breakout above 1.1775 in the event of a badly missed NFP — was the alternative with the highest impact potential. The critical resistance zone was identified at 1.1746–1.1775, the “make-or-break” area for bulls.

What Happened

The early part of the week played out broadly in line with our neutral-to-bearish short-term read. EUR/USD consolidated around the 1.1680–1.1750 zone through Monday and Tuesday, with the MA Ribbon acting as overhead resistance and capping upside attempts. The 9 EMA repeatedly failed to hold above the 18 EMA on the 1-hour chart — exactly the pattern we described in our outlook.

Then Friday’s NFP arrived. The print came in dramatically below consensus — a decisive miss — triggering an immediate and aggressive USD sell-off. EUR/USD broke above the 1.1775 resistance zone with conviction and continued its march higher, ending the week near 1.1785 at multi-week highs. The 1-hour chart shows a clear acceleration candle cutting through the MA Ribbon to the upside, with both short and longer-term moving averages now sloping higher beneath price — a classically bullish alignment.

The early-week bearish idea never triggered, as 1.1700 held as support throughout. The pair spent most of the week coiling above this floor before the NFP catalyst launched it decisively higher, validating our Idea 2 entry trigger — a 4-hour close above 1.1775.

Trade Performance

Idea 1 (the bearish setup) was never triggered — 1.1700 held as firm support all week and no clean breakdown entry presented itself. Idea 2 (bullish NFP breakout) was the trade of the week: a 4-hour close above 1.1775 after the weak NFP print gave a textbook entry, with the 1.1800 and 1.1850 targets now within reach as the pair closed near 1.1785. Idea 3 (range-trading 1.1700–1.1775) was viable through Wednesday but required fast adaptation on Friday when the range was broken violently to the upside.

This week’s EUR/USD price action is a textbook example of why scenario-based trading matters more than anchoring on a single directional bias. Our primary bearish idea never triggered because 1.1700 refused to give way. Traders who remained open to the alternative bullish scenario and waited for the NFP catalyst were well-positioned to capture a clean, high-probability breakout trade.

3. XAU/USD (Gold) — Dip Buyers Rewarded as the Setup Unfolds

Verdict: Win — Dip-buy and NFP breakout both played out

The Outlook

Our gold forecast acknowledged a corrective structure on the short-term charts but maintained a longer-term bullish underpinning. We identified the $4,540–$4,510 zone as the high-probability buy-on-dip entry (Idea 2), targeting a move back toward $4,660 and then $4,720 if NFP was weak. We also flagged the NFP-triggered breakout (Idea 3) — a 4-hour close above $4,680 on weak data — as the setup that could propel gold toward $4,800 and beyond.

What Happened

Gold entered the week already in corrective mode, trading around the $4,560–$4,580 area following the prior week’s sharp decline. The metal continued its grind lower through Monday and Tuesday, testing the $4,510–$4,540 buy zone we identified — the precise area where our Idea 2 long entry was waiting.

The 1-hour chart shows a clear pattern: a basing formation from May 5 onward, with price compressing tightly before a powerful impulse leg ignited from Wednesday onward. The MA Ribbon — initially acting as overhead resistance — was reclaimed with authority as the 9 EMA crossed back above the 18 EMA on the 1-hour chart. By Thursday, gold had printed highs near $4,770, directly testing and exceeding our $4,720 target.

The week closes near $4,715–$4,720, consolidating just above the key reference level. The longer-term moving average (black 100 SMA) has resumed its upward slope beneath price — a structurally bullish setup heading into next week. Gold added approximately $160 from its weekly low to its high, delivering the week’s most rewarding directional move across all three instruments.

Trade Performance

Idea 1 (selling near $4,660 on rejection) was invalidated — rather than rejecting at $4,660, price broke through it decisively to the upside as bullish momentum built. Idea 2 (buying near $4,540–$4,510) was the standout entry of the week: the zone was tested in the early sessions, a clear long opportunity formed, and the subsequent rally to $4,660 and beyond delivered a clean risk-reward outcome. Idea 3 (the NFP breakout above $4,680) also triggered perfectly — the weak jobs data fired the catalyst, $4,680 was broken, and the $4,720 target was reached with room to spare.

This week, gold delivered the cleanest trade of the three instruments. Both the dip-buy and the NFP breakout scenarios converged into a single, well-structured bullish narrative. The key skill was patience — resisting the urge to sell into early-week weakness and instead waiting for the $4,540 zone entry, then adding on the $4,680 breakout confirmation after the NFP print.

Weekly Summary & Lessons Learned

The week of May 4–8 produced two clear wins and a mixed result on the DE40 — a strong overall outcome across the watchlist. Each instrument reinforced a distinct but related discipline.

DE40 reminded us that recognising the right entry is only half the job. The primary bullish scenario was correct and the reward was extraordinary, but the 24,800–25,000 resistance zone was flagged explicitly in our outlook as a major structural barrier. Respecting that level — either through partial profit-taking or an aggressive trailing stop — was the difference between a great week and a good one. Holding into Friday’s reversal unprotected converted a potential +700 point winner into a much smaller result.

EUR/USD demonstrated the value of preparing your alternative scenarios with the same rigour as your primary thesis. Our early-week bearish bias was the logical read given the technical picture, but the market never offered the entry. The alternative NFP breakout idea — clearly laid out in advance — was the trade that actually delivered. Flexibility and scenario-awareness, not stubbornness, are what produce consistent results.

XAU/USD made the case for patience above all else. The $4,540–$4,510 buy zone was identified days in advance. The metal obliged by testing it precisely at the start of the week. Traders who exercised the discipline to wait for that level — rather than chasing the early drift lower — were rewarded with one of the cleanest long setups of the month, already running well in profit by the time the NFP breakout gave a second, equally clean entry at $4,680.

We close the week with the macro narrative shifting beneath our feet: a weaker-than-expected US labor market is now firmly priced in, and markets will spend next week digesting what that means for Fed policy timing. Our full outlook for the week of May 11–15 will be published ahead of Monday’s open.

Stay disciplined. Trade the chart, not the headline.

— The FX Hermes Team

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Risk Disclaimer

This Weekly Market Outlook is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or trading signal. All scenarios and probabilities are estimates based on technical analysis and are subject to change. Trading leveraged instruments carries substantial risk of loss. Always use appropriate position sizing, stop losses, and risk management. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stay disciplined. Trade the chart, not the headline.– The FX Hermes Team