Weekly Trade Review: May 11–15, 2026

How Our DE40, EUR/USD & Gold Setups Performed

Dear trader,

The week of May 11–15 was never going to be ordinary. We entered it with three high-impact catalysts stacked in close succession — US CPI on Tuesday, the Trump–Xi Summit in Beijing on Wednesday through Thursday, and a full calendar of Fed speakers threading through the week’s narrative. We warned that event risk was clustered and that position sizing ahead of Tuesday deserved careful management. What followed was a week that validated the cautious framing: all three instruments delivered decisive directional moves, but not all of them in the direction the primary setups anticipated.

Here is the full accounting of how the week unfolded against our published scenarios for DE40, EUR/USD, and XAU/USD — what played out, what didn’t, and what every outcome teaches us going forward.

1. Germany 40 (DE40) — Bears in Control, But the Range Narrowed the Trade

Verdict: Partial Win — Bearish bias confirmed, but the range compressed the opportunity

The Outlook

Our bias for the DE40 was bearish to neutral. We identified Idea 1 — a failed re-test of the 24,450–24,500 zone followed by a bearish rejection candle below the MA ribbon — as the primary short trigger, targeting 24,100 first, 23,850 second, and 23,650 on extended momentum. We were explicit that the MA ribbon had flipped bearish on both the 4-hour and 1-hour charts, and that the index would need to reclaim 24,500–24,600 with conviction to invalidate the bearish view. The Trump–Xi Summit was flagged as the principal risk to any short position — a positive trade outcome being the most credible threat to our bearish scenario.

What Happened

The DE40 entered the week near 24,276 and the picture quickly deteriorated for bulls. Price attempted a half-hearted recovery through Monday and into Tuesday’s pre-CPI session, pressing toward the 24,400–24,450 resistance zone we had identified — precisely the area where our primary bearish entry was waiting. The MA ribbon provided clear overhead resistance: both the 9 EMA and 18 EMA continued to slope lower, and each rally attempt was rejected with authority beneath the ribbon. The CPI print on Tuesday — softer than expected on headline but with sticky core components — failed to produce the sustained USD sell-off that might have lifted the index.

What followed was a controlled but persistent grind lower. The Trump–Xi Summit on Wednesday and Thursday produced a symbolic communiqué — some tariff language, gestures toward critical mineral access — but fell well short of the comprehensive deal markets had briefly hoped for. Risk appetite failed to ignite, and without a genuine catalyst to bid the index through the MA ribbon, the path of least resistance remained south. By Thursday’s close the DE40 had printed lows near 23,830–23,850, testing exactly the second target from our primary bearish scenario. Friday’s session saw modest stabilisation near 23,833 as the current chart shows, with price still sitting well below a now decisively bearish MA ribbon.

The 1-hour chart visible at the end of the week tells the story with clarity: a rolling sequence of lower highs, both EMAs pointing sharply downward, and price trading at multi-week lows in the 23,800–23,850 zone. The structure is unambiguously bearish on the short-term timeframe.

Trade Performance

Idea 1 (the primary bearish setup) triggered cleanly at the failed re-test of 24,400–24,450 on Tuesday. Target 1 at 24,100 was reached by Wednesday. Target 2 at 23,850 was tested by Thursday. The extended target at 23,650 was not reached, as a brief stabilisation held the index at the swing low. This was a well-structured short trade that delivered on its two primary objectives. Idea 2 (the bullish reversal) never triggered — the 24,300 reclaim with rising EMAs never materialised, and the index continued its descent without offering a credible long entry signal. Idea 3 (the range strategy) was rendered irrelevant once Tuesday’s CPI and the subsequent price action confirmed the directional bias.

The key lesson from the DE40 this week is about patience at the entry point. The temptation mid-week — as the Summit headlines generated brief intraday bounces toward 24,200–24,300 — was to either take early partial profits or, worse, to enter longs anticipating a diplomatic catalyst reversal. The discipline of waiting for the ribbon re-test and not chasing the initial move was what separated a clean short from a frustrating whipsaw. The MA ribbon did its job: every bounce toward it was a selling opportunity.

2. EUR/USD — Dollar Strength Rewrites the Week

Verdict: Loss on the Primary — Bullish breakout failed; bearish scenario not fully triggered either

The Outlook

Our EUR/USD bias entering the week was moderately bullish, anchored by the structural recovery from 1.1630 and the bullish 4-hour EMA crossover. Idea 1 — a 4-hour close above 1.1800 as the breakout signal, targeting 1.1850 and then 1.1920 — was the primary scenario, contingent on a soft US CPI print Tuesday morning. Idea 2 (the bearish alternative) required a confirmed 4-hour close below 1.1740, with targets at 1.1690 and 1.1640. We were clear that the 1.1790–1.1800 zone was the line in the sand for bulls, and that a failure there on the back of a mixed CPI would likely stall the rally.

What Happened

The week opened with EUR/USD trading near 1.1770, coiling tightly below the 1.1800 resistance. The early Monday session saw tentative bids as short-term momentum favoured continuation, but the pair failed to clear 1.1790 on the 4-hour chart with any conviction — exactly the cautionary scenario we had described. Tuesday’s CPI data, while softer than expected at the headline, contained enough stickiness at the core level to disappoint those expecting a clean USD sell-off catalyst. EUR/USD spiked briefly above 1.1800 in the immediate minutes following the release but could not hold — a classic false breakout — and the rejection from that level proved to be the week’s defining moment for the pair.

From that failed breakout, the picture shifted progressively. The Trump–Xi Summit failed to deliver a comprehensive trade framework, which paradoxically supported some USD safe-haven demand — or at least removed the risk-on catalyst that EUR/USD bulls had been pricing in. Throughout the second half of the week, the pair sold off consistently, printing a sequence of lower highs on the 1-hour chart while the MA ribbon flipped from tentatively bullish to clearly bearish. By Friday, EUR/USD had retraced all the way to the 1.1620–1.1630 area — the April swing lows we had flagged as major structural support — before attempting a modest recovery near the current 1.1625 print.

The current 1-hour chart shows a steep, orderly decline with both EMAs sloping downward and price trading below the ribbon. The dotted horizontal support visible near 1.1630 corresponds precisely to the structural demand zone we had identified as the ultimate stop-loss reference for medium-term longs — and the market tested it.

Trade Performance

Idea 1 (the bullish breakout) did not trigger — the 4-hour close above 1.1800 never materialised, and the brief intraday spike above that level on Tuesday’s CPI was not an entry signal under our framework. No entry, no loss on the primary. Idea 2 (the bearish reversal) partially triggered — the 1-hour close below 1.1740 on Wednesday offered a short entry signal for nimble traders, with Target 1 at 1.1690 easily reached and Target 2 at 1.1640 reached by Friday. Those who acted on the Idea 2 confirmation captured the week’s best EUR/USD trade. Idea 3 (the pre-CPI range fade) was viable in the Monday session but required fast adaptation once the CPI false-break pattern became clear.

The EUR/USD week is a precise illustration of why scenario planning demands equal preparation for both directions. The market had been signalling for days that 1.1800 was a formidable barrier — every rally to that zone through Monday and Tuesday produced wicks, not bodies. The failure to achieve a 4-hour close above it was the warning. Traders who respected the confirmation requirement of our framework avoided the false-break trap. Those who anticipated the breakout rather than waiting for it absorbed unnecessary loss.

3. XAU/USD (Gold) — The Correction Resumes After a Failed Recovery

Verdict: Bearish scenario confirmed — Idea 2 and corrective structure played out

The Outlook

Our gold forecast for the week was short-term range / medium-term bullish, with the 4,650–4,720 band identified as the near-term consolidation zone. Idea 1 (the bullish continuation) required a 4-hour close above 4,720 with rising EMAs, targeting 4,760 and then 4,850. Idea 2 (the bearish pullback) required a 4-hour close below 4,640 — triggered by a hot CPI, a positive Summit outcome, or a Strait of Hormuz de-escalation — targeting 4,600 and then 4,540. Idea 3 (the buy-the-dip at 4,510–4,540) was our highest-conviction medium-term entry if the metal sold off deeply enough to test structural support again. We were explicit that the 1-hour EMA ribbon had already flipped bearish entering the week, making the range trade and downside scenarios the higher-probability reads.

What Happened

Gold entered the week near 4,675 and quickly confirmed the bearish 1-hour EMA configuration. An attempted recovery through Monday and early Tuesday — a push toward the 4,700–4,710 area — failed to produce the 4-hour close above 4,720 that Idea 1 required. The MA ribbon on the 1-hour resisted the advance; both EMAs continued to slope lower, and the pullback that followed was sharp. Tuesday’s CPI, while not dramatically hot, was sufficiently ambiguous to reduce the urgency of immediate Fed rate-cut pricing — removing a key gold tailwind.

The Trump–Xi Summit dynamic was the secondary headwind. Markets interpreted the summit’s outcome — a partial tariff framework, some goodwill — as modestly risk-on, which reduced safe-haven demand for gold and provided the directional push that Idea 2 had anticipated. From the 4,700 area on Tuesday, gold sold off methodically across Wednesday and Thursday, breaking below 4,640 (the Idea 2 trigger), then 4,600, and ultimately testing the 4,520–4,540 structural support zone that we had identified as a high-probability buy-the-dip area. The current chart shows a close near 4,540 with price sitting at — and attempting to stabilise around — the dotted horizontal support level corresponding precisely to our Idea 3 long entry zone.

The 1-hour chart at Friday’s close shows the characteristic pattern of a corrective leg finding a floor: a series of aggressive red candles followed by tentative doji and small-bodied candles at support. The MA ribbon remains bearish, but price compression at this structural level hints at exhaustion of the corrective move.

Trade Performance

Idea 1 (the bullish continuation) never triggered — gold failed to produce a 4-hour close above 4,720, and the ribbon did not turn supportive. No valid entry presented itself under that scenario. Idea 2 (the bearish pullback) triggered on Wednesday with the 4-hour close below 4,640 — Target 1 at 4,600 was reached Thursday and Target 2 at 4,540 was reached Friday, making this the cleanest directional trade of the week. Idea 3 (the buy-the-dip at 4,510–4,540) is now live: price is in the zone. Traders who waited for this level all week — as described in our outlook — are now presented with the highest-conviction medium-term long setup on the watchlist. A daily reversal candle at this level remains the entry confirmation requirement.

Gold this week rewarded the patient and punished the premature. The 1-hour ribbon had already issued its warning at the start of the week — the setup was not ready for longs. Waiting for the ribbon to turn or the 4,720 close to materialise prevented entries into a move that ultimately fell $160 from its early-week high. And now, with Idea 3’s target zone reached, the discipline of that patience is about to be rewarded in the opposite direction — if the structural support holds.

Weekly Summary & Lessons Learned

The week of May 11–15 was defined by macro events that underwhelmed — a CPI print that satisfied neither bulls nor bears, a Summit that produced symbolism without substance — and by markets that punished positions built on optimistic assumptions. Across all three instruments, the underlying lesson was the same: let the market confirm the direction before committing.

DE40 delivered the cleanest trade of the week. The MA ribbon’s bearish configuration was unambiguous from Monday onwards, the entry at the ribbon re-test was well-defined, and both targets were reached without drama. The index is now at multi-week lows near 23,833, well below the ribbon, and the structure remains bearish heading into next week.

EUR/USD was the week’s most important technical lesson. The false breakout above 1.1800 on CPI day was a trap for those who anticipated the move rather than waiting for a confirmed 4-hour close. The bearish alternative scenario — Idea 2 — was the trade that ultimately delivered, but only for those who had prepared it with equal rigour to the primary thesis. The pair is now testing the April structural lows at 1.1620–1.1630: a level that matters.

XAU/USD produced the week’s sharpest correction and now presents the week’s most interesting forward opportunity. Idea 2 was the trade — the bearish pullback triggered cleanly and delivered both targets. With price now sitting in the 4,510–4,540 structural buy zone, the medium-term bull case for gold is about to face its most important test. The daily reversal candle confirmation is all that stands between patience and reward.

We close the week with all three instruments at structurally significant levels: the DE40 sitting on a 1-hour swing low that will either become a base or give way to further selling; EUR/USD at the April structural lows that defined the prior rally; and gold at the precise buy zone that anchored our most optimistic medium-term scenario. The market has handed us a setup-rich entry into next week.

Our full outlook for the week of May 18–22 will be published ahead of Monday’s open.

Stay disciplined. Trade the chart, not the headline.

— The FX Hermes Team

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Risk Disclaimer

This Weekly Market Outlook is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or trading signal. All scenarios and probabilities are estimates based on technical analysis and are subject to change. Trading leveraged instruments carries substantial risk of loss. Always use appropriate position sizing, stop losses, and risk management. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stay disciplined. Trade the chart, not the headline.– The FX Hermes Team