Dear,

Last week’s outlook painted a bearish picture across DE40 and EUR/USD, with Gold showing mixed signals. We emphasized a “risk-off” scenario driven by potential US tariff announcements on April 2 (“Liberation Day”) and the critical Non-Farm Payrolls report on April 4. The strategy centered on selling rallies into resistance zones with tight risk management around key news events.

Here’s a factual review of how the markets actually unfolded and how our recommended strategies aligned with real price action.

DE40 (Germany 40) – Bearish Call Missed as Tariff Fears Fade

Current Price at Week Start: 22,098

Weekly Range: 21,926.3 – 23,410.2

Weekly Close: ~23,168 (April 2)

What We Predicted:

The briefing identified a strongly bearish bias with the index testing critical support at 22,000–22,100. We warned that a breakdown below this level could trigger a drop toward 21,000, while any bounce into the 22,400–22,560 resistance zone was flagged as a prime selling opportunity. The analysis emphasized that tariff news on April 2 could “crush” the DE40 if new duties on EU goods were announced.

What Actually Happened:

The DE40 defied bearish expectations with a strong rally throughout the week. The index opened Monday (March 30) near 22,213 and surged to weekly highs around 23,377 on April 1, representing a gain of over 5% from the weekly open [[2]]. Despite the Liberation Day tariff announcements on April 2, the index only pulled back modestly to close near 23,168, ending the week with a net gain of approximately +4.8%.

The critical 22,000 support held firmly and actually became the launching pad for a powerful rally. Traders who positioned for shorts on bounces into the 22,400–22,560 zone would have been stopped out as price blasted through resistance without looking back. The bearish “Death Cross” narrative failed to materialize as buyers dominated the week.

Why We Were Wrong: The market appears to have priced in tariff concerns well before the actual announcement. The “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamic worked in reverse—once the tariff details were revealed on April 2, relief buying emerged rather than panic selling. Additionally, the stronger-than-expected NFP report (+178K vs +65K expected) on Friday boosted risk sentiment across global markets.

Performance Grade: ❌ Bearish call incorrect – The index rallied strongly instead of breaking down.

EUR/USD – Support Holds, Pair Ends Flat Despite Bearish Pressure

Current Price at Week Start: 1.1511

Weekly Close: 1.1522–1.1539

What We Predicted:

We identified 1.1500 as a critical “lifeline” support level, warning that a confirmed break could open the door for a drop toward 1.1380. The strategy called for selling rallies into the 1.1550–1.1580 resistance zone, with the moving averages acting as a convergence point for short entries. We cautioned about “noisy, fake-out moves” on Monday due to quarter-end rebalancing.

What Actually Happened:

EUR/USD experienced a volatile but ultimately directionless week. The pair dipped to test the 1.1458 level on March 31, briefly breaking below the 1.1500 psychological support before recovering. It then rallied strongly to weekly highs near 1.1627 on April 1, testing the upper resistance zone we identified.

From there, the pair drifted lower through the week, closing near 1.1522–1.1539 on April 3—essentially flat for the week. The 1.1500 support ultimately held despite intraday breaches, and the deeper target of 1.1380 was never threatened.

Traders who sold the 1.1550–1.1620 resistance zone after the April 1 spike captured a modest 60–80 pip move back toward 1.1520, representing a successful short-on-rally setup. However, those who chased the breakdown below 1.1500 on Monday/Tuesday likely faced whipsaw losses as the pair quickly reversed higher.

Key Insight: The pair’s resilience at 1.1500 despite bearish pressure suggests underlying support from quarter-end flows and potential dollar profit-taking ahead of NFP. The stronger jobs report (+178K) on Friday should have boosted USD, but EUR/USD remained relatively stable, indicating the level had been well-defended.

Performance Grade: ⚠️ Partially correct – Bearish bias valid on rallies, but 1.1500 support held firm, preventing the projected breakdown.

XAU/USD (Gold) – Bullish Reversal Catches Bears Off Guard

Current Price at Week Start: ~4,493

Weekly High: ~4,789 (April 1)

Weekly Close: ~4,676

What We Predicted:

Gold was described as being at a “crossroads” with a mixed bias (short-term bullish, long-term bearish). We identified the 4,550–4,600 zone as major resistance (where the daily 9 EMA sits) and suggested either buying dips to 4,450 support or selling rejections at 4,580. The analysis warned that Gold was “the trickiest of the three” instruments and advised avoiding heavy positions through NFP.

What Actually Happened:

Gold staged a powerful rally that caught many bears off guard. The metal opened the week near 4,482–4,493 and surged to weekly highs around 4,789 on April 1, representing a gain of nearly $300/oz or +6.6% from the weekly low [[22]]. This move decisively broke through the 4,550–4,600 resistance zone we identified, which then flipped to support.

The rally peaked on April 1, coinciding with peak tariff uncertainty, before pulling back to the 4,600–4,620 area mid-week. Gold then stabilized near 4,676 on Friday, ending the week with a net gain of approximately +4.1% from the starting price [[20]][[24]].

Traders who bought dips to 4,450–4,500 captured exceptional gains of 150–300 points. Conversely, those who sold the 4,580–4,600 resistance early in the week faced significant losses as Gold powered through the level. The “short-term bullish” call was correct, but we underestimated the magnitude of the rally.

Why Gold Surged: The combination of tariff-induced risk aversion, a mid-week dip in the US Dollar, and technical buying above 4,600 fueled the rally. Gold’s traditional safe-haven status attracted bids despite the stronger NFP report, which typically pressures precious metals [[24]][[40]].

Performance Grade: ✅ Correct on upside potential – The short-term bullish scenario played out more aggressively than anticipated.

Overall Assessment

This week proved exceptionally challenging for bearish positioning across all three instruments. The anticipated “risk-off” scenario failed to materialize as expected, with markets demonstrating resilience in the face of tariff headlines and strong employment data.

What Went Wrong:

1. Tariff Anxiety Priced In Early – The Liberation Day tariff announcements on April 2 triggered relief buying rather than panic selling, suggesting the market had already discounted worst-case scenarios [[27]][[28]].
2. Strong NFP Boosted Risk Sentiment – The +178K jobs report (vs +65K expected) and 4.3% unemployment rate supported equities and Gold while limiting USD strength [[36]][[39]][[40]].
3. Technical Support Held Firm – Key levels like DE40’s 22,000 and EUR/USD’s 1.1500 proved far more resilient than anticipated, serving as launching pads for counter-trend rallies.

What Went Right:

1. Gold’s Mixed Bias Correct – Identifying Gold’s short-term bullish potential allowed traders to capture significant upside.
2. EUR/USD Resistance Zone Valid – The 1.1550–1.1620 area did act as resistance, providing viable short entries for those who waited for the bounce.
3. Volatility Warnings Heeded – Our caution about holding heavy positions through NFP proved prudent given the wild swings across all instruments.

Key Takeaway:

This week underscores the danger of over-committing to a single narrative in event-driven markets. While the technicals favored bears on DE40 and EUR/USD, the fundamental catalysts (tariffs, NFP) produced the opposite reaction from what conventional wisdom suggested. The lesson: wait for price confirmation rather than anticipating news outcomes, and always respect strong technical support levels even when the macro picture looks dire.

Looking Ahead: Our next Weekly Market Outlook will reassess these instruments with fresh eyes, incorporating this week’s price action and the post-NFP landscape. Sometimes the market’s message is clear: the trend is your friend, even when the news seems scary.

We appreciate your trust in following these briefings. As always, past performance is not indicative of future results—trade responsibly and maintain strict risk management.

Best regards,
The FX Hermes Team

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves significant risk.