Dear Reader,

Last week’s briefing highlighted a clear bearish bias across the DAX, EUR/USD, and Gold, driven by geopolitical tensions, a firmer US dollar, rising yields, and energy concerns. We emphasized waiting for bounces into resistance zones for high-conviction short entries rather than chasing moves.

Here’s a factual review of how the markets unfolded and how the recommended strategies aligned with actual price action.

DAX (DE40) – Bearish Continuation

The briefing noted the index trading near 22,212.9, sitting above critical psychological support at 22,000 in a primary downtrend. The preferred setup was a short on bounce into the 22,700–22,994 resistance zone, with rejection patterns on the 4-hour chart. Stop above 23,200; targets 22,000 then 21,500.

What actually happened: The DAX opened the week with volatility, posting a strong +1.22% gain on Monday (March 23) as it tested highs near 23,178. It continued higher mid-week, reaching 23,079 on Wednesday (March 25, +1.41%). However, the rally stalled in the 22,700–23,000 area as expected. From there, selling pressure intensified: the index dropped -0.07% on Thursday and accelerated lower on Friday, closing at 22,300.75 (down 1.38% on the day).

The week ended with a modest net decline (roughly -0.3% to -0.9% depending on exact prior close). Traders who waited for the counter-trend rally into the identified resistance zone and entered shorts on rejection captured a solid move toward the 22,000–22,300 area. The main support at 22,000 was tested intraday but held on the weekly close. The stop level above 23,200 remained untriggered for disciplined entries. Overall, the bearish continuation bias and short-on-bounce approach delivered favorable risk-reward for the week.

EUR/USD – Rejection at the 1.1600 Pivot

We described the pair at 1.1571, testing a major resistance confluence at 1.1575–1.1620 (S/R flip + 38.2% Fib + daily 18 EMA) within a dominant daily downtrend. The primary strategy was short entries on rejection of this zone, targeting 1.1500 then 1.1420. An alternative was a tactical short on pullbacks to the 4-hour EMAs (1.1530–1.1550). Counter-trend longs were flagged as risky.

What actually happened: EUR/USD started the week near 1.156–1.161 and pushed toward the upper resistance (reaching intraday highs near 1.164 on Monday and testing 1.163 early in the week). The zone acted as strong overhead resistance, with repeated failures to break higher sustainably. The pair then drifted lower in a choppy but downward-biased range.

It closed the week near 1.1510–1.1535 (Friday’s close around 1.1510–1.1535, with small daily declines on most days after Monday’s modest gain). The move respected the 1.1500–1.1520 support area without a decisive breakdown. Shorts entered around the 1.1575–1.1620 rejection or on 4H EMA failures profited from the mild drift toward the first target at 1.1500. The deeper target at 1.1420 was not reached, but the broader daily downtrend remained intact. Counter-trend long attempts near 1.1500 faced pressure near resistance and required quick exits.

XAU/USD (Gold) – Corrective Free-Fall Phase

The analysis highlighted a sharp corrective phase after a double-top pattern, with price around 4,497. The base case (55% probability) was bearish continuation via short-on-bounce entries into the 4,580–4,640 zone (near 4H 9 EMA), targeting 4,440 then 4,400. Aggressive breakout shorts below the daily low (~4,477) were also noted, while warning of possible dead-cat bounces in oversold conditions.

What actually happened: Gold opened the week under heavy selling pressure and remained volatile throughout. It traded in the 4,400s with significant downside spikes, testing lows near 4,350–4,400 intraday at points. The week confirmed the corrective “free-fall” mode, with a net decline of several percent (one of the sharper weekly drops in recent memory amid reduced rate-cut expectations and a stronger dollar).

A sharp rebound occurred on Friday (March 27), with gold surging +2.58% to close near 4,490–4,493 after hitting daily lows around 4,375. This recovery tested dip-buying interest but did not erase the broader weekly downside. Shorts on bounces toward 4,520–4,580 (or earlier resistance) captured good moves toward the 4,440–4,400 support zone during the corrective phase. The Friday rebound introduced volatility and likely challenged late entries or required tight stops. The first targets were approached or tested, aligning well with the bearish continuation view for most of the week.

Overall Assessment

The bearish tone across all three instruments proved directionally sound in a risk-off environment dominated by geopolitical developments and shifting rate expectations. The emphasis on short-on-bounce setups into resistance helped avoid chasing and improved timing.

• DAX: Strong alignment — resistance rejection delivered the expected sell-off.
• EUR/USD: Solid performance — modest but clean drift lower from the key pivot.
• Gold: Mostly successful on the downside, though Friday’s rebound highlighted the need for active risk management.

Success ultimately depended on precise entry timing, adherence to stops, and position sizing. These setups illustrate the value of waiting for structure rather than forcing trades in volatile conditions.

We appreciate your trust in following these briefings. As always, past performance is not indicative of future results — trade responsibly and maintain strict risk management.

Looking ahead: Our next Market Pulse will cover fresh setups for the coming week. Stay tuned!

Best regards,
The FX Hermes Team