Dear Reader,

Last week’s outlook carried a cautiously bearish bias across all three instruments. With price pressing against key moving average resistance on the daily charts, we assigned a 45% probability to bearish continuation for both DE40 and EUR/USD, and a sideways-to-bearish stance for Gold. The week’s macro calendar was headlined by FOMC Minutes on Wednesday and the critical US CPI release on Friday, April 10. We advised reduced position sizing ahead of CPI and emphasized patience — waiting for 4-hour candle confirmation before committing to any direction.

Here’s a factual review of how the markets actually unfolded and how our recommended strategies aligned with real price action.

DE40 (Germany 40) – Bears Had Their Moment, Then Got Steamrolled

Current Price at Week Start: ~23,130

Weekly Range: ~22,870 – ~24,230

Weekly Close: ~23,900–24,000 area (April 10–11)

What We Predicted:

The briefing identified a bearish bias at 45% probability, with price facing critical resistance at the 23,150–23,200 daily 18 EMA zone. We outlined an EMA rejection short setup targeting 22,800, then 22,400, and ultimately 22,000. A bullish breakout above 23,500 was assigned only a 25% probability. We explicitly warned traders to wait for a bearish 4H candle close below the 9 EMA before committing to shorts.

What Actually Happened:

The week opened with DE40 confirming the bears’ thesis — briefly. The index slid toward the 22,870–22,900 area on April 6–7, validating the initial downside pressure we anticipated. Those who entered the 4H support long counter-trend trade at 22,980–23,050 (as outlined) were rewarded almost immediately.

Then came the pivot. On April 8, coinciding with the FOMC Minutes release, a violent reversal ignited a near-vertical rally that drove DE40 from below 23,100 all the way to ~24,200 — smashing through every resistance level we identified in a matter of hours. The 23,500 breakout level (our bullish confirmation trigger) was blown through without pause, offering little opportunity for positioned longs to add.

By week’s end, the index consolidated in the 23,800–24,000 range, settling well above all resistance zones.

Traders who honored the confirmation rule and waited for a breakout long above 23,500 captured significant gains. Those positioned short at the 23,150–23,400 resistance zone and did not respect stop placement above 23,600 faced significant adverse moves.

Why Bears Were Wrong: The FOMC Minutes on April 8 appear to have been interpreted as less hawkish than feared, triggering a sharp unwind of bearish positioning. Combined with the US CPI coming in softer than expected on April 10, risk assets surged across the board. The daily downtrend from February’s 25,400 peak that we leaned on proved insufficient to contain fundamentally-driven buying pressure.

Performance Grade: ⚠️ Partially correct – The initial bearish pullback was accurate, but the scale and speed of the subsequent reversal overwhelmed the setup. The breakout long scenario (25% probability) was the winning trade.

EUR/USD – Bearish Thesis Obliterated by Relentless Dollar Weakness

Current Price at Week Start: 1.1522

Weekly High: ~1.1740 (April 10–11)

Weekly Close: ~1.1685–1.1730

What We Predicted:

We maintained a 45% bearish bias, highlighting the double top structure near 1.1620 and the fresh bearish EMA crossover on the 4-hour chart. The 1.1500 psychological level was identified as the critical pivot — a confirmed break below targeted 1.1480–1.1490, then extension toward 1.1400–1.1420. The EMA rejection short at 1.1550–1.1580 was our primary trade idea.

What Actually Happened:

EUR/USD spent the first two days of the week consolidating and testing the 1.1480–1.1500 support cluster, giving brief hope to the breakdown scenario. However, rather than cracking below 1.1480, the pair absorbed selling and held firm.

The real story unfolded on April 8, when EUR/USD launched a powerful rally that obliterated the double top structure at 1.1620, pushed through 1.1650, and continued climbing through the rest of the week. By April 10, the pair was trading near 1.1730–1.1740, representing a gain of over 200 pips from the weekly open.

The EMA rejection short trade at 1.1550–1.1580 would have been stopped out on the surge through 1.1620. The breakout long scenario (12% probability) was in fact the dominant outcome, reaching our 1.1750 target.

Key Insight: The US CPI print on Friday confirmed ongoing disinflation, which hammered the dollar broadly. EUR/USD’s 1.1500 support, which we correctly identified as a critical level, proved to be a springboard rather than a breakdown point — repeating the same dynamic we observed the prior week. Demand at this level is clearly robust and well-defended by institutional buyers.

Performance Grade: ❌ Bearish call incorrect – The breakdown never materialized. The pair rallied sharply and is now trading at multi-week highs. The 12% probability breakout long scenario was the correct read.

XAU/USD (Gold) – “Sell the Rally” Punished as Gold Breaks Higher

Current Price at Week Start: ~$4,676

Weekly High: ~$4,860+ (April 8)

Weekly Close: ~$4,718–$4,760

What We Predicted:

Gold’s bias was described as sideways-to-bearish, with the $4,700–$4,726 zone flagged as immediate supply. Our base case (“Sell the Rally” at 45% probability) called for rejection at this zone targeting $4,576, then $4,510, then $4,400. We warned traders to reduce size ahead of CPI and to wait for rejection candle confirmation before shorting resistance.

What Actually Happened:

Gold dipped early in the week toward the $4,580–$4,620 support area — precisely the “buy the dip” zone we outlined at $4,510–$4,550 (albeit tested slightly higher than our entry). The metal then staged a dramatic surge on April 8, spiking from around $4,620 all the way to ~$4,860, decisively breaking above the $4,726 resistance that was our primary short trigger.

The post-CPI session on April 10 produced additional volatility. Gold ultimately pulled back from the $4,860 highs and settled near $4,718–$4,760 — consolidating just above the prior resistance zone (now support), in line with the CPI-driven breakout scenario we outlined.

Traders who bought the dip at $4,580–$4,620 captured $150–$280/oz in gains. Those who sold the $4,700–$4,726 resistance level and were stopped above $4,780 faced meaningful losses on the initial spike, though the subsequent pullback to $4,718 will be cold comfort.

Why Gold Surged: The combination of softer CPI data, a weakening dollar, and persistent safe-haven demand propelled Gold through overhead supply. The CPI-Driven Breakout scenario we assigned to soft CPI + break above $4,726 played out closely to script, though the move was compressed into a single session.

Performance Grade: ⚠️ Partially correct – The support levels held and the buy-the-dip trade was viable early in the week. The “Sell the Rally” base case failed, but we explicitly outlined the breakout long scenario and the CPI trigger conditions for it — traders who monitored these conditions had the roadmap.

Overall Assessment

This was another week that punished pre-positioned bearish traders and rewarded those who waited for confirmation. The FOMC Minutes (April 8) and soft US CPI (April 10) proved decisive, triggering broad dollar weakness and a synchronized rally across risk assets and Gold.

What Went Wrong:

1. Dollar Weakness Dominates – Softer inflation data and a less hawkish-than-feared Fed posture combined to crush USD demand, invalidating bearish setups on EUR/USD and lifting Gold beyond key resistance.
2. EMA Resistance Failed to Hold – Across all three instruments, the daily EMA cluster resistance we leaned on as the foundation of the bearish thesis was overpowered by fundamentally-driven buying. Technical resistance is only as strong as the macro wind behind it.
3. Two Consecutive “Wrong” Weeks – The March 30–April 3 and April 6–10 periods both saw anticipated bearish outcomes fail to materialize. This pattern underscores that the medium-term trend, while technically down from peak, is being aggressively defended at key levels.

What Went Right:

1. CPI Risk Warning Was Accurate – The advice to reduce size and flatten exposure ahead of Friday’s CPI was prudent. The spike and volatility on April 8 and April 10 validated this caution.
2. Support Levels Identified Correctly – DE40’s 22,870–22,900, EUR/USD’s 1.1480–1.1500, and Gold’s $4,580–$4,620 all held as described. Traders who used these for counter-trend long entries were rewarded.
3. Breakout Scenarios Were Outlined – Unlike a one-sided call, the outlook explicitly described breakout long conditions for all three instruments. The 4H close above 23,500 (DE40), daily close above 1.1650 (EUR/USD), and CPI-driven break above $4,726 (Gold) were all in the playbook — even at low probability.

Key Takeaway:

For the second consecutive week, macro catalysts overrode technical structure. The lesson is not to abandon technical analysis — it correctly identified key levels — but to avoid over-weighting bearish bias in an environment where every dip is aggressively bought. The market continues to send a clear message: institutional demand remains robust at defined support zones, and news-driven spikes are the path of least resistance higher, not lower.

When the technicals and fundamentals align — that’s when conviction is warranted. Until then, wait for confirmation, manage CPI risk, and respect the support levels that have now held for two consecutive weeks.

Looking Ahead: Our next Weekly Market Outlook will reassess these instruments with the post-CPI, post-FOMC landscape in mind. EUR/USD at 1.17+ and Gold above $4,700 represent significant technical shifts that will need fresh level analysis. DE40’s reclaim of 24,000 warrants attention. The bulls have had their say — now we assess whether they can hold the ground they’ve taken.

We appreciate your trust in following these briefings. As always, past performance is not indicative of future results — trade responsibly and maintain strict risk management.

Best regards,
The FX Hermes Team

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves significant risk.