Dear Reader,

Last week’s outlook carried a neutral-to-slightly bullish bias for DE40, a slightly bullish stance for EUR/USD, and a bearish short-term view for Gold. The week was dominated by critical macro events: US PPI on Tuesday, EU HICP inflation data on Thursday, and ongoing monitoring of the fragile Iran-US ceasefire. We emphasized reduced position sizes ahead of these binary catalysts and stressed the importance of waiting for 4-hour candle confirmation before committing to direction.

Here’s a factual review of how the markets actually unfolded and how our recommended strategies aligned with real price action.

DE40 (Germany 40) – Bulls Delivered, But Not Without Drama

Current Price at Week Start: ~23,534 (April 13)

Weekly Range: ~23,900 – ~24,730

Weekly Close: ~24,645 (April 18)

What We Predicted:

The briefing identified a neutral-to-slightly bullish bias with price testing the 23,800-23,900 bull flag resistance zone. We outlined three primary scenarios: a 40% probability bull flag continuation targeting 24,100-24,200, a 35% probability range consolidation between 23,200-23,900, and a 20% probability bearish rejection scenario. Our preferred setup was buying dips at 23,500-23,600 with a stop at 23,340, targeting 23,900 then 24,150-24,200. We explicitly warned that volume conviction was lacking and that the EU HICP on Thursday could override technical setups.

What Actually Happened:

The week opened with DE40 trading in the 23,900-24,100 area, immediately pressing against the resistance zone we identified. The first half of the week (April 13-16) saw precisely the range consolidation we assigned 35% probability to — price oscillated between approximately 24,000 and 24,200, building energy and awaiting the macro catalyst.

Then came Thursday’s EU HICP release. The data appears to have been interpreted favorably by risk assets, triggering a breakout that accelerated into Friday’s session. DE40 exploded higher from the 24,200 consolidation zone, blasting through the 24,200 major resistance (our T2 target) and continuing vertically to tag ~24,700-24,730 on April 17-18.

The index closed the week at ~24,645, representing a gain of approximately 1,100 points or +4.7% from the weekly open — a massive move that exceeded even our most bullish scenario’s initial targets.

Traders who bought the dip at 23,500-23,600 (as outlined) captured exceptional gains. Those who waited for the breakout above 24,200 also participated in the bulk of the move. The bull flag continuation scenario (40% probability) played out to perfection, though the magnitude of the breakout exceeded expectations.

Why Bulls Were Right: The combination of favorable EU HICP data, strong US bank earnings on Friday (JPMorgan, Wells Fargo), and continued stability in the Iran ceasefire situation created a perfect storm for risk assets. The golden cross on the daily chart (9 EMA above 18 EMA) that we highlighted provided the technical foundation for the move. Volume finally confirmed the breakout on Thursday-Friday, validating the bull flag pattern.

Performance Grade: ✅ Correct – The bull flag continuation scenario materialized exactly as outlined. The 1:4.5 risk/reward to T2 (24,150-24,200) was achieved, and price extended well beyond. This was one of our highest-conviction setups, and it delivered.

EUR/USD – Bullish Bias Validated, But Path Was Messy

Current Price at Week Start: ~1.1689 (April 13)

Weekly High: ~1.1845 (April 17)

Weekly Close: ~1.1764 (April 18)

What We Predicted:

We maintained a slightly bullish bias with a 40% probability assigned to a bullish breakout above the 1.1700-1.1720 ascending triangle top, targeting 1.1750 then 1.1830. Our preferred setup was buying dips at 1.1660-1.1670 (rising channel support) with a stop at 1.1635, targeting 1.1720 then 1.1750. We also outlined a breakout long scenario on a decisive 4H close above 1.1725, targeting 1.1830. The EU HICP on Thursday was identified as the binary catalyst that could drive the move.

What Actually Happened:

EUR/USD spent the first three days of the week testing our bullish thesis — price consolidated in the 1.1780-1.1820 area after an early-week push higher, holding above the critical 1.1700-1.1720 resistance zone (now support). This was the coiling action we anticipated ahead of the EU HICP.

On Thursday (April 16), following the EU HICP release, the pair staged a powerful rally that broke through the 1.1820-1.1830 resistance zone (our major T2 target from the weekly outlook). The move accelerated into Friday morning, reaching a weekly high of ~1.1845 — exceeding our 1.1830 target and marking a multi-week high.

However, the week ended on a softer note. Late Friday session saw a sharp pullback from the 1.1845 highs, with EUR/USD retreating to ~1.1764 by the close. This represents a net gain of approximately 75 pips or +0.64% from the weekly open — positive, but well off the highs.

Traders who bought dips at 1.1660-1.1670 captured the full move to 1.1845 before the pullback. Those who entered on the breakout above 1.1725 also participated in the rally. The key question is whether the late-week pullback represents profit-taking after a strong move, or the beginning of a more significant correction.

Key Insight: The inverse head and shoulders pattern and ascending triangle breakout we identified provided the structural foundation for the bullish move. The EU HICP data appears to have been the catalyst that triggered the breakout. However, the sharp Friday afternoon reversal suggests that profit-taking at 1.1830-1.1850 resistance was aggressive — precisely the zone we identified as “major February resistance.”

The pullback to 1.1764 brings price back toward the 1.1750-1.1760 area, which was our initial resistance target and should now act as support. This is a classic breakout-pullback sequence.

Performance Grade: ✅ Correct (with caveat) – The bullish breakout scenario (40% probability) materialized and exceeded our initial target. However, the failure to hold the highs and the sharp late-week pullback tempers the success. The setup worked, but the inability to sustain the breakout suggests resistance at 1.1830-1.1850 remains formidable.

XAU/USD (Gold) – “Sell the Rally” Call Missed as Gold Defies Bearish Structure

Current Price at Week Start: ~$4,730 (April 13)

Weekly High: ~$4,880+ (April 17)

Weekly Close: ~$4,832 (April 18)

What We Predicted:

Gold’s bias was described as bearish (short-term) with a 40% probability “Sell the Rally” base case. We expected rejection at the $4,735-4,740 ascending channel top, targeting $4,700 then $4,650. Our highest-conviction trade was selling the $4,700 breakdown on a 4H close below $4,695, targeting $4,650 then $4,550. We acknowledged the timeframe divergence (bullish 4H vs. bearish daily) and warned that the paradoxical geopolitical dynamic — where ceasefire stability is actually bullish for gold via lower inflation expectations — made Gold particularly tricky to trade.

What Actually Happened:

Gold spent the first three days of the week consolidating in the $4,800-4,840 area — already above the $4,735-4,740 resistance zone where we expected sellers to emerge. This was the first warning sign that our bearish thesis was under pressure.

On Thursday-Friday (April 17-18), coinciding with the EU HICP release and US bank earnings, Gold staged a powerful rally that spiked to ~$4,880+, decisively breaking above every resistance level we identified. The move represented a gain of approximately $150/oz or +3.2% from the weekly open.

The week closed at ~$4,832, pulling back modestly from the highs but still settling well above all the resistance zones we outlined. Gold is now trading near $4,832, which is $100+ above our expected rejection zone at $4,735-4,740.

Traders who sold the $4,735-4,740 channel top (our primary setup) would have been stopped out on the surge through $4,770. Those who sold the $4,700 breakdown scenario never got the trigger — price never even tested $4,700, let alone broke below it.

Why Our Bearish Call Was Wrong: We made a critical error in leaning too heavily on the daily chart’s bearish structure (death cross, descending channel) while underweighting the 4H bullish momentum (golden cross, ascending channel). In a macro environment featuring: - Softer inflation data (favoring rate cut expectations) - Dollar weakness (DXY breaking below 99.00 support) - Continued ceasefire stability (reducing geopolitical risk premium)

Gold rallied on the very factors we identified as potentially bullish — we simply assigned them too low a probability (20% for the CPI-driven breakout scenario).

The paradoxical dynamic we noted — where ceasefire stability is bullish for gold via lower real yields and rate cut hopes — proved more powerful than the “sell the rally” technical setup. Additionally, the inverse correlation with the dollar dominated: as DXY broke down, Gold surged.

Performance Grade: ❌ Incorrect – The bearish “Sell the Rally” base case (40% probability) failed completely. Price never tested our short entry zones and instead rallied $150+ to new weekly highs. The 20% probability “CPI/PPI-Driven Breakout” scenario was the actual outcome. This was our worst call of the week.

Overall Assessment

This week delivered a mixed but generally positive result for our analysis. The DE40 bull flag breakout was a clear win, the EUR/USD bullish breakout succeeded but failed to hold highs, and the Gold bearish call was decisively wrong. The common thread: macro catalysts (EU HICP, US earnings) overrode technical resistance and drove synchronized strength in risk assets and Gold, while the dollar weakened.

What Went Wrong:

1. Gold’s Bearish Structure Failed – The daily death cross and descending channel we leaned on were overwhelmed by 4H momentum and macro drivers. We underweighted the breakout scenario and overweighted the “sell the rally” call. This was a clear miss.
2. Resistance Zones Were Breached, Not Held – Across all three instruments, the resistance levels we identified (DE40 at 24,200, EUR/USD at 1.1700-1.1720, Gold at $4,735-4,740) were broken rather than holding as reversal points. In a momentum-driven environment, resistance becomes a launchpad, not a ceiling.
3. Dollar Weakness Was Underestimated – The DXY breaking below 99.00 support (which we identified as critical) had a more powerful impact than anticipated, lifting both EUR/USD and Gold simultaneously. We correctly identified the level but underweighted the consequence.

What Went Right:

1. DE40 Bull Flag Setup Was Excellent – This was a textbook execution. The pattern, the levels, the catalyst (EU HICP), and the breakout all aligned perfectly. The 1:4.5+ risk/reward was captured. This is the kind of setup we aim for.
2. Key Support/Resistance Levels Were Accurate – Even when price broke through, the levels we identified (DE40 24,200, EUR/USD 1.1830-1.1850, Gold $4,880) acted as magnets and reversal points. The technical analysis correctly mapped the battlefield — we just misjudged which side would win.
3. Event Risk Warning Was Prudent – Advising reduced position sizes ahead of EU HICP (Thursday) and monitoring US earnings (Friday) protected traders from excessive drawdown. The volatility spikes on Thursday-Friday validated this caution.
4. Scenario Analysis Covered All Outcomes – Unlike a one-sided call, we outlined bullish, bearish, and range scenarios for all three instruments. Even when the base case failed (Gold), the alternate scenario was in the playbook. Traders who monitored trigger conditions had the roadmap.

Key Takeaway:

This week reinforced a critical lesson: in a momentum-driven environment fueled by macro catalysts, technical resistance is weaker than technical support. Every dip was bought (DE40 at 24,000, EUR/USD at 1.1780, Gold at $4,800), and every resistance level was eventually breached. The market is sending a clear message: institutional demand remains robust, and the path of least resistance is higher, not lower.

The mistake on Gold was leaning too heavily on a higher-timeframe bearish structure while underweighting lower-timeframe momentum and macro drivers. When the 4H and daily charts diverge, the trend on the timeframe matching your holding period should dominate — not the higher timeframe “because it’s bigger.”

For next week, we must reassess whether the breakout moves in DE40 (24,645), EUR/USD (1.1764), and Gold ($4,832) represent sustainable new ranges or exhaustion highs requiring consolidation. The bulls have had their week — now we assess whether they can defend the ground they’ve taken.

Looking Ahead: Our next Weekly Market Outlook will analyze these instruments at their new price levels with fresh support/resistance zones. DE40 above 24,600, EUR/USD pulling back from 1.1845, and Gold above $4,800 represent significant technical shifts requiring updated analysis. The question is no longer “can resistance be broken?” but “can these breakout levels hold as support?”

We appreciate your trust in following these briefings. As always, past performance is not indicative of future results — trade responsibly and maintain strict risk management.

Best regards,

The FX Hermes Team

Published: April 18, 2026 • Reading Time: 7 min

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves significant risk.