Dear Trader,

🌍 Market Overview & Key Events

The week of June 29 – July 3 opens on the back of a deeply complex macro environment. Last week’s Core PCE data landed in-line to slightly softer than feared, yet it did nothing to shift the Fed’s trajectory — Chair Warsh’s hawkish hold posture, with the dot plot anchoring any rate cut expectations firmly in 2027, continues to dominate USD price action. EUR/USD has staged a tentative recovery from its multi-week lows near 1.1300 back toward the current 1.1415 area, but the 4-hour EMA structure remains decisively bearish. Gold has recovered off the 3,970 flush low and is consolidating near 4,060, while the DE40 has pulled back from the 25,050 area and is attempting to stabilise around 24,750 — reflecting compression and indecision ahead of a genuinely consequential week.

This is a holiday-shortened but macro-heavy week — one of the most data-rich in the second half of the year, with a hard stop on Friday as US markets close for the Fourth of July holiday (observed Thursday, July 2). The density of what lands in Monday through Thursday makes every session meaningful.

Tuesday, June 29 — Conference Board Consumer Confidence (17:00 Athens): The opening macro shot of the week. Consumer confidence has been drifting lower through Q2 under the weight of energy prices and elevated mortgage costs. A reading that shows an accelerating deterioration in household sentiment would add early pressure to risk assets and the dollar’s “strong economy” narrative simultaneously — a conflicted signal for USD direction but clearly negative for the DE40.

Wednesday, July 1 — ISM Manufacturing PMI (17:00 Athens) + Fed Chair Warsh speaks at Sintra ECB Forum (15:30 Athens): A double-barrel event. ISM Manufacturing has been hovering in contraction territory for much of 2026; any dip below the 49 handle would reinforce fears of a US industrial slowdown. More significantly, Warsh’s appearance at the Sintra ECB Forum — speaking on “Shaping Europe’s Future” — gives him a rare stage to address monetary policy framing in an international context. Given his known preference for saying less in public, any deviation toward dovish language would be treated by markets as a significant policy signal and trigger sharp USD selling. Conversely, any reinforcement of the hawkish hold stance simply extends the existing trend. This is the single most unpredictable scheduled event of the week.

Wednesday, July 1 — ADP Employment Report (15:15 Athens) + JOLTS Job Openings: The traditional pre-NFP warm-up act. ADP consensus sits near 145K for June. A meaningful miss here — sub-100K — would set up a risk-off tone heading into Thursday’s official jobs data and would soften the USD ahead of the NFP print. JOLTS will be watched for any signal that the labour market cooling narrative is accelerating.

Thursday, July 2 — Nonfarm Payrolls, June (15:30 Athens): This is the week’s centrepiece and arguably the most significant scheduled data release until the July FOMC. The BLS is releasing the June jobs report one day early due to the July 4 holiday. Consensus sits near 172,000 new jobs created, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.3%. A print above 200K with a falling unemployment rate would be unambiguously USD-positive, cementing the “hold-or-hike” Warsh narrative and applying fresh downside pressure to EUR/USD and gold while supporting the DE40’s risk appetite component. A print below 130K — particularly combined with any upward revision to the unemployment rate — would be the single most credible catalyst this week for a sustained EUR/USD recovery, a gold breakout, and a DE40 sell-off driven by growth-concern repricing. US markets close early Thursday and are fully closed Friday, July 4. All positions must be sized with this in mind — thin Friday liquidity will exaggerate any moves from Thursday’s data.

Geopolitical Overhang — US-Iran (Ongoing): The structural Strait of Hormuz risk has not been resolved. The partial reopening agreement remains fragile, and nuclear talks remain stalled. Any credible escalation headline — military posturing, sanctions escalation, or a shipping incident in the Gulf — would be immediately and sharply gold-positive, risk-negative for the DE40, and a euro headwind through the energy cost channel. Monitor geopolitical newswires especially around the US session open each day.

ECB Sintra Forum (Monday–Wednesday): Multiple ECB speakers are scheduled throughout the forum, including President Lagarde. Any language acknowledging a potential ECB rate cut before end-2026 would be euro-negative (ECB divergence from the Fed’s hold narrative) and would add to EUR/USD’s structural bearish case. Conversely, hawkish ECB language defending the deposit rate would provide temporary EUR/USD support.

1. 🇩🇪 Germany 40 (DE40) — Compression at a Critical Inflection

Technical Landscape

The 4-hour chart captures a market that rallied sharply from the early June lows near 24,000 to a high near 25,400 in the week ending June 19, before entering a sustained distribution phase. Over the past two weeks, price has traced a clear series of lower highs: 25,400 → 25,100 → the current 24,750 area. The 4-hour EMA ribbon has flipped into full bearish configuration — the 9 EMA (yellow) is trading below the 18 EMA (black), and the black 18 EMA continues to slope lower at a meaningful angle. Price is trading beneath both moving averages. The 4-hour structure is unambiguously bearish; every attempted recovery in the past week has stalled at the falling ribbon and rolled back lower. The medium-term picture, zooming out to the full chart, shows the DE40 has built a significant range between roughly 24,000 on the floor and 25,400 on the ceiling — but within that range, the internal structure is now rotating lower.

On the 1-hour chart, last week’s price action is one of contained volatility and consistent directional pressure. From the 25,050 area at Monday’s open, the DE40 ground steadily lower through the week, reaching a low near 24,600 on Thursday/Friday before the current tentative stabilisation around 24,750. The 1-hour EMA ribbon is in bearish alignment, with both EMAs pointing lower and price consistently below them throughout the descent. There is a minor short-term consolidation now forming near 24,730–24,760 — the current pre-market zone — which coincides with the 1-hour ribbon beginning to flatten slightly. This is not yet a reversal signal; it is a pause within a downtrend. The key question London session will need to answer is whether this consolidation resolves with a bearish continuation through 24,600, or whether a stabilisation attempt develops into a meaningful counter-rally attempt toward the 4-hour ribbon zone near 24,900–24,950.

Most Likely Bias: Cautiously Bearish / Range

The bias is mildly to moderately bearish with a wide caveat: the DE40 has repeatedly proven its structural resilience relative to global equity peers. European equity valuations are less rate-sensitive than US tech-heavy indices, and German industrial names benefit structurally from any EUR/USD weakness. The 4-hour EMA ribbon configuration and the pattern of lower highs tilt the probability toward continued downside, but the 24,600 structural support zone has held twice in recent sessions and represents a credible battle line. A clean directional break — in either direction — is most likely catalysed by Thursday’s NFP print and Warsh’s Tuesday appearance at Sintra.

Key Levels to Watch

Resistance begins at 24,850–24,900, which is the immediate zone where the falling 1-hour EMA ribbon intersects with prior consolidation bodies from last week’s distribution. A clean 1-hour close above 24,900 would be the first signal of any short-term recovery attempt. Above that, 24,950–25,000 is the key psychological and technical battleground — where the 4-hour EMA ribbon base currently sits and where price has been consistently rejected over the past five sessions. The 25,050–25,100 zone is the week’s primary resistance ceiling; a 4-hour close above here would represent a genuine structural shift and would likely only occur on a dramatically weak NFP or Warsh dovish surprise.

Support sits first at 24,600–24,640, the zone from which the current tentative stabilisation has developed and which has acted as a floor twice in recent sessions. A sustained 4-hour close below 24,600 opens the door to 24,400–24,450, a structural demand zone from mid-June, and beyond that 24,200–24,250, the base of the entire recovery rally that began at the June 11 lows — a break here would signal meaningful structural deterioration and likely correspond to a significant risk-off macro catalyst.

Trade Ideas

Idea 1 — Bearish Continuation (Primary Scenario)

The dominant EMA configuration on both timeframes and the pattern of lower highs make selling into the falling ribbon the highest-probability directional trade this week. Look for a recovery attempt into the 24,880–24,950 zone — likely during London morning or in the lead-up to Warsh’s Tuesday Sintra appearance — and wait for a confirmed 1-hour bearish rejection candle (shooting star, bearish engulfing, or pin bar) forming below the falling 4-hour ribbon with both EMAs pointing lower.

• Entry: Short around 24,880–24,930 on confirmed 1-hour bearish rejection below the ribbon
• Target 1: 24,640 · Target 2: 24,400 · Extended Target: 24,200 on a hot NFP or hawkish Warsh reinforcement
• Stop-Loss: Above 25,050 (above the 4-hour ribbon ceiling and prior structural resistance)
• Risk-Reward: approximately 1:2.0 to T1 / 1:3.5 to T2
• Rationale: The 4-hour EMA ribbon is bearish, the pattern of lower highs is intact, and the macro backdrop of USD strength under Warsh’s hawkish hold remains the structural driver. A strong NFP print Thursday would be the week’s primary downside catalyst for European equities. Warsh’s Sintra appearance on Tuesday introduces the greatest uncertainty — reduce to 50% position size ahead of that event.

Idea 2 — Bullish Reversal (Alternative Scenario)

A weak NFP print — below 130K, or rising unemployment rate — combined with dovish Warsh language at Sintra triggers a broad risk-on wave. Confirmation requires a clean 4-hour close above 24,950 with the 9 EMA (yellow) beginning to cross up through the 18 EMA (black) on the 4-hour chart. Do not enter on anticipation — wait for the close.

• Entry: Buy on 4-hour close above 24,950, or a limit entry near 24,600 on a confirmed 1-hour bullish reversal candle (hammer, morning star) at the support zone
• Target 1: 25,100 · Target 2: 25,250
• Stop-Loss: Below 24,400
• Rationale: The medium-term structural range base near 24,000–24,200 remains intact, and the DE40 has historically recovered strongly from oversold conditions within this range. A macro surprise — weak labour market data or a dovish Fed shift — would trigger aggressive short-covering. This is the lower-probability scenario but offers clean structure.

Idea 3 — Pre-NFP Range Fade (Monday–Wednesday)

In the three sessions before Thursday’s NFP, the DE40 is likely to oscillate between 24,600 and 24,950 without a clean directional conviction. Fade the extremes with reduced position size — targeting 150–200 point intraday moves on either side — and avoid any new directional swing positions within 2 hours of Warsh’s Tuesday Sintra speech (15:30 Athens) and Thursday’s NFP release (15:30 Athens). This week, liquidity disappears Thursday afternoon and entirely on Friday.

2. 💶 EUR/USD — Bear Flag Resolution Approaching

Technical Landscape

The 4-hour chart presents one of the cleaner macro downtrend structures across all three instruments. From the mid-May highs near 1.1700, EUR/USD has traced an almost textbook series of lower highs and lower lows through six weeks of sustained selling. The most recent leg — from 1.1630 to the multi-week low near 1.1300 following the June 16–17 FOMC — represents the sharpest and most structurally significant breakdown of the entire move. The 4-hour EMA ribbon remains in full bear configuration: the 9 EMA (yellow) is well below the 18 EMA (black), both point lower at an acute angle, and price has been living below the ribbon for the majority of the past month. The current recovery from 1.1300 to the 1.1415 area has the hallmarks of a textbook bear flag — a tight, mildly upward-sloping consolidation on the 4-hour chart following a near-vertical decline, with both EMAs continuing to slope lower above price. If this flag resolves to the downside — the higher-probability outcome — the measured move projects toward the 1.1200–1.1250 zone.

On the 1-hour chart, the structure of the recovery is technically constructive in isolation but cautionary in context. The pair has bounced from the 1.1300 area with some conviction, and the 1-hour 9 EMA has now crossed above the 18 EMA — a tentative short-term bullish signal. Price is currently printing near 1.1415 and has traded as high as 1.1415 in the current session. However, the 1-hour rally has done nothing structurally significant: the 4-hour ribbon continues to fall overhead, and every 1-hour attempt to push higher has resulted in a stall below the 1.1440–1.1460 zone where the falling 4-hour ribbon base sits. This is a short-term momentum recovery within a medium-term downtrend — the classic sell-the-rally structure.

Most Likely Bias: Bearish

The bias is firmly and clearly bearish across all timeframes. The combination of a confirmed EMA downtrend on both the 1-hour and 4-hour, the macro backdrop of a hawkish Fed, elevated US inflation, a structurally weakening eurozone growth picture, and a bear flag on the 4-hour chart all point in the same direction. The pair is attempting to stage a brief recovery from deeply oversold territory — and that recovery may extend slightly further into the 1.1430–1.1460 zone — but the structural case for a reversal is absent without a dramatic macro catalyst. A strong NFP print Thursday would be the week’s primary accelerant for a renewed leg lower. A weak NFP or dovish Warsh would trigger a sharp short-covering rally that, in the absence of a 4-hour EMA crossover, should be treated as a selling opportunity rather than a reversal.

Key Levels to Watch

Resistance begins at 1.1430–1.1460, where the falling 4-hour EMA ribbon currently resides and where price has been repeatedly capped throughout the current recovery bounce. This is the critical line in the sand for bears — a 4-hour candle close above 1.1460 with both EMAs beginning to flatten and turn upward would be the first credible short-term shift in momentum. Above that, 1.1500–1.1520 represents the pre-FOMC consolidation base whose loss in mid-June confirmed the current breakdown — any recovery to this zone would face heavy supply and represents a premium short opportunity within the broader downtrend. The 1.1570–1.1600 zone is the week’s extreme ceiling; reaching here would require an extreme fundamental surprise (weak NFP below 100K combined with Warsh pivoting dovish).

Support sits first at 1.1360–1.1380, the first visible structural demand zone below the current price and the level from which any NFP-driven extension lower would first pause. Below that, 1.1300–1.1320 is the FOMC flush low — a key structural reference and the most recent significant low that defines the current medium-term range. A clean 4-hour close below 1.1300 would be a technically significant bearish development and would target the 1.1220–1.1250 zone, a level not visited since April’s post-trade-deal euphoria wore off.

Trade Ideas

Idea 1 — Bearish Continuation / Sell the Rally (Primary Scenario)

The current recovery bounce into the 1.1430–1.1460 resistance zone — where the falling 4-hour ribbon sits — offers the week’s highest-probability short setup. Look for a 1-hour bearish rejection candle forming at or below this zone, with the 9 EMA unable to hold above the 18 EMA on the 1-hour and the 4-hour ribbon continuing to slope lower overhead.

• Entry: Sell around 1.1430–1.1455 on confirmed 1-hour bearish rejection below the falling 4-hour ribbon
• Target 1: 1.1360 · Target 2: 1.1300 · Extended Target: 1.1220 on a hot NFP (above 200K)
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.1520 (above the prior support-turned-resistance zone and well clear of the 4-hour ribbon)
• Risk-Reward: approximately 1:1.8 to T1 / 1:2.5 to T2
• Rationale: Selling into the falling 4-hour EMA ribbon within a multi-week confirmed downtrend, backed by USD structural strength and a Fed that has emphatically ruled out near-term cuts. A strong NFP on Thursday accelerates to T2 and beyond. The Warsh Sintra appearance on Tuesday is the primary intraweek risk — keep position size at 50–60% ahead of that event and reload after the directional reaction settles.

Idea 2 — Bullish Reversal (Alternative Scenario)

A June NFP print significantly below expectations — sub-130K, or accompanied by a jump in the unemployment rate toward 4.5% — combined with dovish Warsh language at Sintra triggers aggressive USD unwinding. Confirmation requires a 4-hour close above 1.1520 with the 9 EMA beginning to curl upward through the 18 EMA on the 4-hour chart.

• Entry: Buy on confirmed 4-hour close above 1.1520, or a limit entry near 1.1300–1.1320 on a 1-hour bullish reversal structure (hammer, engulfing, morning star) at the prior FOMC flush low
• Target 1: 1.1600 · Target 2: 1.1650
• Stop-Loss: Below 1.1220
• Rationale: The six-week sell-off has been extreme in both pace and magnitude. Short positioning is likely heavily stretched. A genuine fundamental surprise — a labour market cooling more rapidly than the Fed anticipated — would trigger a short squeeze of significant velocity. The 1.1300 zone as a long entry offers excellent reward-to-risk. This remains the lower-probability scenario and requires confirmed 4-hour structure before entry.

3. 🥇 XAU/USD (Gold) — Consolidation at the Crossroads

Technical Landscape

Gold’s 4-hour chart tells a story of a bear market in partial recovery. The metal declined from a high near 4,600 in May all the way to a low near 3,970 — a decline of more than $600 — driven by the compounding effect of the hawkish FOMC hold, rising real yields, and a sustained USD rally. The most recent bounce from the 3,970 low back toward the current 4,060 area represents a roughly $90 recovery — modest in both scale and structure. The 4-hour EMA ribbon remains in bearish alignment: the 9 EMA (yellow) is below the 18 EMA (black), and both continue to slope lower, though at a slightly less acute angle than the peak of the decline. Price is trading below both moving averages. The 4-hour picture is one of attempted stabilisation within an ongoing downtrend — not yet a reversal.

On the 1-hour chart, the recovery structure from the 3,970 low is more encouraging in isolation. Price bounced sharply and has spent the past two sessions consolidating in the 4,040–4,080 range. The 1-hour 9 EMA has crossed above the 18 EMA — a tentative short-term bullish signal — and both are beginning to flatten, suggesting the acute selling pressure has eased. However, the 1-hour ribbon remains shallow and unconvincing: there has been no impulsive bullish momentum, just a slow grind upward through a tight range. The current price near 4,063 is sitting just below the area where the falling 4-hour 18 EMA intersects with recent swing highs — creating an immediate overhead resistance cluster that gold must break on a 4-hour close basis to signal any meaningful structural improvement.

Most Likely Bias: Range with Bearish Tilt / Geopolitical Wildcard

The bias is range-bound with a bearish medium-term lean, but with a geopolitical wildcard that makes gold uniquely difficult to fade aggressively. The macro headwinds are clear: Warsh’s hawkish hold raises the real yield narrative, the strong USD compresses gold’s USD-denominated price, and any hot data this week (strong NFP) would reinforce the “rates higher for longer” narrative. However, gold’s relationship to this macro cycle is not linear — as both an inflation hedge and a safe-haven asset, it receives conflicting signals from a high-inflation, high-rate-hold environment. Physical demand, central bank buying (particularly from EM economies de-dollarising), and the structural geopolitical risk premium around the US-Iran situation provide a consistent floor that pure macro analysis alone cannot fully price.

The 4,080–4,100 zone is the immediate overhead battleground. A sustained 4-hour close above 4,100 — placing price above the falling 18 EMA — would represent the first meaningful structural shift since the May decline began. Without that, the path of least resistance within the current range remains sideways-to-lower, with the 3,970–4,000 zone as the defining technical floor.

Key Levels to Watch

Resistance sits first at 4,080–4,100, where the falling 4-hour 18 EMA (black) currently resides and where the most recent recovery has stalled. This is the critical gatekeeping level: a 4-hour close above 4,100 with the yellow 9 EMA beginning to curl upward through the 18 EMA would signal that near-term selling pressure is exhausting. Above that, 4,150–4,180 represents the next structural overhead zone, corresponding to prior consolidation bodies from the June 23–25 period. The 4,300–4,320 zone is significant medium-term resistance and only comes into play if both the NFP disappoints sharply and geopolitical risk escalates simultaneously.

Support begins at 4,020–4,040, which is the immediate demand shelf from which the current bounce has developed and corresponds to the cluster of 1-hour lows over the past week. A break below this area with the 9 EMA recrossing under the 18 EMA on the 1-hour would signal that the short-term recovery has failed and that the 3,970 low is being retested. The 3,970–4,000 zone is the FOMC flush low and the most important structural reference on the chart — a clean 4-hour close below 3,970 would be technically significant and would open the door toward the 3,880–3,920 zone, representing the next visible support from April’s price history.

Trade Ideas

Idea 1 — Bearish Continuation / Sell the Recovery (Primary Scenario)

A failed attempt to reclaim the 4,080–4,100 resistance zone — where the falling 4-hour 18 EMA resides — offers the highest-probability short setup for gold this week. Look for a 1-hour bearish rejection candle at or below this zone, with the 4-hour ribbon still pointing lower and the 1-hour 9 EMA failing to hold above the 18 EMA.

• Entry: Sell around 4,080–4,095 on confirmed 1-hour bearish rejection below the 4-hour ribbon
• Target 1: 4,020 · Target 2: 3,970 · Extended Target: 3,880 on strong NFP + no geopolitical escalation
• Stop-Loss: Above 4,160 (above the prior swing high cluster and well clear of the 4-hour ribbon)
• Risk-Reward: approximately 1:2.0 to T1 / 1:2.8 to T2
• Rationale: Selling into the falling 4-hour EMA ribbon within an established downtrend. A strong NFP print Thursday would reinforce the USD / real yield narrative and drive gold back toward the 3,970 structural floor and potentially below. The primary risk to this trade is a Middle East escalation headline or dramatically weak NFP — maintain hard stops and size down ahead of Thursday.

Idea 2 — Bullish Breakout (Alternative Scenario)

A confirmed 4-hour close above 4,100 — breaking price above the falling 18 EMA — combined with either a materially weak NFP print or a credible US-Iran escalation headline that triggers gold’s safe-haven premium. The 1-hour EMA bullish crossover already in place provides technical backing.

• Entry: Buy on the 4-hour close above 4,100, or a limit entry near 4,020–4,040 on a confirmed 1-hour bullish reversal candle
• Target 1: 4,180 · Target 2: 4,320
• Stop-Loss: Below 3,940
• Rationale: The $600 decline from the May highs represents an extreme move that has cleared most leveraged longs. With the 1-hour EMA showing a bullish cross and physical/central bank demand providing a structural floor, the recovery risk is real. A weak NFP or geopolitical shock — either individually, and certainly in combination — would provide the catalyst for a sharp short-covering rally. The stop below 3,940 keeps risk controlled relative to the reward.

Idea 3 — Buy the Structural Floor

If gold is driven back toward the 3,970–4,000 zone — whether by a hot NFP or continuation of USD strength — this area represents the highest-conviction medium-term long entry available on the chart. Look for a confirmed 4-hour bullish reversal candle (hammer, morning star, bullish engulfing) at or near this zone before entering. Do not pre-position in anticipation.

• Entry: Limit buy at 3,980–4,005 on confirmed bullish reversal structure on the 4-hour
• Target 1: 4,100 · Target 2: 4,180 · Extended Target: 4,320 on sustained macro or geopolitical reversal
• Stop-Loss: Below 3,920
• Rationale: The FOMC flush low near 3,970 is now one of the best-defined technical reference points on the chart. Physical buyers, EM central bank accumulation, and the structural geopolitical risk premium make this zone a logical accumulation area for medium-term positioning. The reward-to-risk from this level is among the most compelling available across all three instruments.

⚠️ Risk Considerations & Key Events (Athens / EEST Time)

Monday, June 30 — Conference Board Consumer Confidence (17:00 Athens): Sets the tone for the week and the first read on whether the US consumer is deteriorating more rapidly than priced. A sharp miss is risk-off for DE40 and ambiguous for USD — monitor and react rather than anticipate.

Tuesday, July 1 — ISM Manufacturing PMI (17:00 Athens) + Fed Chair Warsh at Sintra ECB Forum (15:30 Athens): The most unpredictable scheduled event of the week. Warsh’s Sintra address is a live wildcard. Any deviation from his established hawkish messaging — however subtle — will be amplified by algorithmic parsing. Reduce all directional position sizes to 50% ahead of 15:30 Athens on Tuesday. React to the confirmed directional move rather than positioning ahead of it.

Wednesday, July 2 — ADP Employment + JOLTS (15:15–17:00 Athens): The NFP pre-read. A significant miss or beat relative to consensus (145K) will condition the market’s positioning into Thursday. Treat any large ADP surprise as an opportunity to adjust existing positions rather than initiate new ones.

Thursday, July 3 — Nonfarm Payrolls, June (15:30 Athens): The week’s dominant catalyst. Consensus at 172K jobs / 4.3% unemployment. Above 200K with stable or falling unemployment = USD rally, gold and EUR/USD lower, DE40 under pressure. Below 130K with rising unemployment = USD selling, gold and EUR/USD recovery rally, DE40 ambiguous (growth concern vs rate-cut hope). This is also the last full trading session of the week — US markets observe the July 4 holiday on Friday, July 3. Plan to close or significantly hedge all swing positions before Thursday’s US session close. Friday liquidity will be near-zero and price action unpredictable.

US-Iran Geopolitical Overhang (Ongoing Throughout the Week): This remains the most potent unscheduled risk factor. Monitor newswires particularly around the US session open (16:30–17:00 Athens) and into the close each day. Gold is the most sensitive instrument; the DE40 and EUR/USD are secondary but still materially affected through energy price and risk sentiment channels.

ECB Sintra Forum — ECB Speakers (Monday–Wednesday): Lagarde and other ECB officials speaking at the forum could move EUR/USD meaningfully, particularly if any language around ECB rate cuts emerges. A divergence narrative — ECB cutting while the Fed holds — would be incrementally bearish for EUR/USD.

📋 Summary Outlook

The overarching theme for the week of June 30 – July 4 is NFP week in a hawkish macro regime — a known data catalyst arriving into an already directionally committed macro narrative, with the added complexity of a Fed Chair wildcard on Tuesday and a market that closes for the holiday on Thursday afternoon.

EUR/USD is the cleanest directional trade: sell the rally into the 1.1430–1.1460 resistance zone is the highest-probability setup, with a strong NFP as the week’s primary accelerant and a stop above 1.1520 defining the risk. The DE40 is more nuanced — European equity resilience and the range structure between 24,600 and 24,950 make it a fade-the-extremes trade until NFP resolves the directional question. Gold is the week’s most complex instrument: technically contained below the 4-hour ribbon, structurally supported by the 3,970 floor, and permanently sensitive to the Iran geopolitical wildcard. Do not carry unhedged gold positions into Thursday’s NFP without defined stops.

Position sizing discipline this week has an added dimension: the effective trading week is four days, not five. Thursday is NFP day and early close. Friday is a holiday. The week’s risk is compressed into a shorter timeframe — size accordingly, plan your NFP reaction in advance, and do not let a holiday-Friday position slip into the weekend unmanaged.

Stay disciplined. Trade the chart, not the headline.

— The FX Hermes Team

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Risk Disclaimer

This Weekly Market Outlook is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or trading signal. All scenarios and probabilities are estimates based on technical analysis and are subject to change. Trading leveraged instruments carries substantial risk of loss. Always use appropriate position sizing, stop losses, and risk management. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stay disciplined. Trade the chart, not the headline.– The FX Hermes Team