Dear Trader,

Market Overview & Key Events

The week of June 15–19 arrives under the shadow of one of the most consequential macro events of the year: the FOMC policy decision on Wednesday, June 17 — the first under newly confirmed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets have already priced a near-certain hold at 3.50–3.75%, but the real market-moving event will be Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET and the accompanying Summary of Economic Projections (Dot Plot). This is Warsh’s debut as chair, and he is widely regarded as more hawkish than his predecessor. Any shift in the dot plot projections toward rate hikes, or any notably hawkish statement language, could trigger significant USD strength, equity weakness, and safe-haven flows into gold. A neutral or unexpectedly dovish tone, on the other hand, would be dollar-negative and risk-on.

Critically, US Retail Sales for May drops on Tuesday, June 16 (8:30 AM ET / 3:30 PM Athens), and Industrial Production follows at 9:15 AM ET the same day. These prints land the morning the FOMC meeting formally begins, meaning Tuesday is a double-edged setup: strong retail data strengthens the hawkish Warsh narrative; weak data complicates it.

Weekly Jobless Claims, normally released Thursday, have been moved to Wednesday, June 17 (8:30 AM ET) due to the Juneteenth federal holiday on Thursday, June 18. US equity and bond markets are closed Thursday. This compresses meaningful price action into a four-session week and means Wednesday carries an unusually heavy data and event burden: Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, and the FOMC statement all land the same day.

The macro context entering the week: May CPI printed at 4.2% year-over-year, firmly above target and the highest reading since early 2025. The Fed has held rates through three consecutive meetings under an 8-4 dissent vote — the widest internal split since 1992. Markets are now pricing approximately 70% probability of at least one rate hike before year-end. This is the inflation-hawkish regime that Warsh inherits, and how he frames it Wednesday will define the macro tone for July through September.

On the geopolitical front, the US-Iran nuclear negotiations remain a live variable. Any breakthrough or deterioration will move energy prices sharply and, by extension, affect gold’s safe-haven premium and European equity sentiment via energy cost channels.

📅 Key Events Calendar

Monday, June 15 — Empire State Manufacturing Index (light event, directional check only)

Tuesday, June 16 — US Retail Sales May (8:30 AM ET / 3:30 PM Athens) · Industrial Production May (9:15 AM ET) · FOMC meeting begins (Day 1)

Wednesday, June 17 — Housing Starts May (8:30 AM ET) · Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET, one day early) · FOMC Rate Decision + Dot Plot (2:00 PM ET / 9:00 PM Athens) · Fed Chair Warsh Press Conference (2:30 PM ET / 9:30 PM Athens)

Thursday, June 18 — US Markets closed (Juneteenth) · DE40 may see thin conditions

Friday, June 19 — USDA Export Sales, potential residual FOMC repricing in price action

1. Germany 40 (DE40) — Explosive Recovery, Now Testing the Ceiling

Technical Landscape

The 4-hour chart tells a remarkable story of a market that completely reversed its June sell-off in a matter of days. After the sharp drop from the 25,200–25,400 all-time-high zone through early June, the DE40 collapsed all the way to the 23,900–24,100 range, cutting more than 1,200 points in under two weeks. The 9 EMA (yellow) dropped decisively below the 18 EMA (black), and both EMAs remained in a sustained bearish configuration for the majority of the correction. However, from around June 11–12, a violent recovery kicked in. Price surged from the 24,100 area all the way back toward 25,050 — reclaiming the entire drop in fewer than three sessions. The 9 EMA is now crossing back above the 18 EMA on the 4-hour timeframe, but both EMAs are still catching up to price, with the ribbon now curling higher and showing early-stage bullish alignment.

The 1-hour chart shows the raw momentum of this recovery even more clearly. From the 24,150 low area on around June 11, price printed a series of large bullish candles, pushing through 24,500, 24,700, and ultimately through 25,000 to print a high around 25,050–25,060 this morning (June 15). As of the 08:06 Athens timestamp, price is consolidating just at the 25,000 area with both 9 EMA and 18 EMA catching up from below — a bullish sign, but also a sign that momentum may be overextended in the very near term.

The critical technical question for this week: is 25,000–25,100 now acting as resistance or has it flipped to support? Given the speed of the recovery, a retest of the breakout zone before continuation is the textbook expectation.

Most Likely Bias: Bullish with Short-Term Consolidation Risk

The dominant bias for the week is bullish, but with caution on Tuesday and Wednesday given FOMC event risk. The 4H EMA crossover has returned to bullish alignment, and the reclaim of 25,000 on strong momentum is a structural positive. The longer-term picture on the 4H — showing the May all-time high near 25,400 and the current positioning near 25,000 — suggests the next directional push targets 25,200 and potentially 25,400 on the right catalyst. However, a hawkish Warsh press conference Wednesday evening (Athens time) could snap risk assets lower quickly, and the 4-session week reduces liquidity heading into Thursday’s holiday.

Key Levels to Watch

Resistance

25,050–25,100 — the current consolidation ceiling and the level where price stalled this morning. A clean 4H close above here with both EMAs rising is the trigger for continuation.

25,200–25,250 — structural swing area from late May / early June; first meaningful target on a breakout above 25,100.

25,380–25,420 — the all-time high zone; ultimate target for bulls if the broader recovery holds through FOMC.

Support

24,900–24,950 — the 9 EMA (yellow) on the 4H is approaching this zone; likely first pullback support and a key level to watch on any FOMC-induced dip.

24,600–24,650 — mid-recovery support level; multiple 1H closes in this area during the grind higher from June 12. A drop here would not break the bullish structure but would signal a deeper correction.

24,150–24,200 — the recent recovery low and the ultimate support for this recovery structure. A break below here would signal the June sell-off is resuming.

Trade Ideas

Idea 1 — Bullish Continuation (Primary Scenario)

Wait for a confirmed 1-hour close above 25,050 with both EMAs aligning beneath price, ideally after Monday’s consolidation establishes the breakout base. Tuesday’s Retail Sales and FOMC Day 1 dynamics determine whether this play matures or gets delayed.

• Entry: Buy on a 1H pullback to 24,930–24,970 (EMA retest) after confirming bullish structure, or on a 4H close above 25,100 with momentum
• Target 1: 25,200 · Target 2: 25,380 · Extended: 25,420 all-time-high zone
• Stop-Loss: Below 24,700 (below recent EMA ribbon support)
• Risk/Reward: Approximately 1:2 to 1:3 depending on entry
• Rationale: The violent recovery from 24,100 and the reclaim of 25,000 signal strong institutional demand. The 4H EMA ribbon is flipping back bullish. As long as Warsh does not deliver a shock-hawkish surprise Wednesday, equities should remain bid. The German DAX is also benefiting from euro-zone resilience and any improvement in US-Iran geopolitical noise.
• Key Risk: A hawkish FOMC dot plot shift or hotter Retail Sales data (USD-positive) could trigger a quick pullback to 24,700–24,900. Scale back to 50% size before the Wednesday 9:00 PM Athens FOMC window.

Idea 2 — Bearish Reversal from Resistance (Alternative Scenario)

If the DE40 tests 25,050–25,100 and fails to close above on the 4H, look for a bearish rejection setup — particularly if Wednesday’s FOMC statement language tilts notably hawkish or Retail Sales disappoints (risk-off catalyst).

• Entry: Sell on a confirmed 1H bearish rejection candle at 25,050–25,100 zone, with both EMAs curling flat or lower beneath price
• Target 1: 24,700 · Target 2: 24,450
• Stop-Loss: Above 25,200
• Risk/Reward: Approximately 1:1.5 to 1:2
• Rationale: After a near-1,000-point recovery in under four sessions, the DE40 is approaching significant overhead supply. A failed breakout at the 25,000–25,100 resistance could trigger a sharp unwind of the recovery move, especially given the light Thursday session due to Juneteenth.

Idea 3 — Buy the FOMC Dip (Event-Driven)

If FOMC language causes a sharp intraday pullback to the 24,600–24,700 zone on Wednesday evening Athens time, this represents a high-probability buy-the-dip setup assuming the hawkish message is “hold, not hike.”

• Entry: Limit buy at 24,650 or market buy on confirmed bullish reversal 1H candle following the initial FOMC reaction spike lower
• Target 1: 24,950 · Target 2: 25,150
• Stop-Loss: Below 24,400
• Rationale: Even if Warsh sounds hawkish, a hold is still a hold — and markets often reverse “sell the news” reactions. The Juneteenth holiday compresses this recovery window into the Thursday evening and Friday session.

2. EUR/USD — Sharp Recovery, But Now Facing the FOMC Wall

Technical Landscape

The 4-hour chart paints a striking picture of a pair that corrected sharply from the 1.1760–1.1780 area in late May all the way down to a low near 1.1490–1.1510 around June 5–6, before staging an equally dramatic reversal. From that low, EUR/USD has recovered nearly 200 pips in the last week, printing a high of approximately 1.1620 this morning (June 15). The 9 EMA (yellow) has crossed back above the 18 EMA (black) on the 4H timeframe, with both EMAs now curling higher — a textbook bullish crossover after a sustained corrective move. Price is currently trading above both EMAs, which is constructive. However, the ribbon is still in the early stages of the bullish realignment, and momentum could easily stall here.

The 1-hour chart captures the nature of this recovery: it was fast, clean, and driven by strong bullish candles from the 1.1490 low. Price accelerated through 1.1550, 1.1580, and has printed a short series of bullish 1H closes above 1.1600. As of the 08:06/08:07 Athens timestamps, price is sitting at 1.16154 with both EMAs beneath and rising. The Asian session high/low range (00:00–10:00 Athens) appears to have been respected, with the most recent candles holding above 1.1600. The immediate overhead challenge is the 1.1620–1.1640 zone, which was mid-June consolidation resistance before the previous drop.

The critical macro overlay: the FOMC on Wednesday is the biggest risk to this recovery. EUR/USD is essentially a mirror of USD sentiment. A hawkish Warsh press conference — or a dot plot that shifts projections toward a 2026 hike — would likely deliver a sharp USD bid and push EUR/USD back toward 1.1500 and potentially lower. A neutral to dovish tone would confirm the recovery and open the door to 1.1680–1.1720.

Most Likely Bias: Cautiously Bullish — Pre-FOMC Consolidation Expected

The bias is moderately bullish but event-constrained. The 4H EMA crossover and the 190-pip recovery from 1.1490 favour the upside. However, the pair is now approaching the first meaningful resistance cluster at 1.1620–1.1640 and faces the Warsh FOMC as the week’s dominant binary event. Expect the pair to consolidate or drift sideways on Monday and Tuesday pre-Retail Sales, react sharply to Retail Sales Tuesday morning, then face its biggest test at Wednesday evening’s FOMC outcome. Directional clarity will likely not arrive until after 9:30 PM Athens time on Wednesday.

Key Levels to Watch

Resistance

1.1620–1.1640 — the immediate overhead zone; mid-June consolidation highs before the June 5 flush lower. The first meaningful barrier to continued recovery.

1.1680–1.1700 — structural resistance from early June and the lower end of the prior consolidation range. A 4H close above here significantly strengthens the bullish case.

1.1760–1.1780 — the major swing high from late May and the area where the sell-off originated. This is the medium-term target for EUR/USD bulls, achievable only on a dovish FOMC outcome.

Support

1.1580–1.1600 — the immediate 1H pullback support; where the 9 EMA sits on the 1H chart. Loss of this level on a 1H close would signal consolidation deepening.

1.1540–1.1550 — a key near-term pivot; a break below here on the 4H would slow the bullish recovery significantly.

1.1490–1.1510 — the June 5–6 swing low and the structural demand zone that sparked this recovery. This is the ultimate invalidation level for the bullish view.

Trade Ideas

Idea 1 — Bullish Continuation (Primary Scenario)

Look for a pullback and hold above 1.1580–1.1600 on Monday or Tuesday, followed by a confirmed 1H bullish candle close above 1.1620. If Retail Sales come in softer-than-expected Tuesday (reducing USD demand ahead of FOMC), this setup matures quickly.

• Entry: Buy on a confirmed 1H close above 1.1620 with rising EMAs, or limit buy near 1.1585 (EMA confluence support)
• Target 1: 1.1680 · Target 2: 1.1720 · Extended: 1.1760 on a dovish FOMC outcome
• Stop-Loss: Below 1.1540
• Risk/Reward: Approximately 1:2 to 1:2.5
• Rationale: The 4H EMA crossover is fresh and the pair has reclaimed the 1.1600 level cleanly. Weak US Retail Sales combined with a neutral FOMC would be the ideal double-catalyst for this trade, widening the monetary policy narrative back toward EUR/USD bulls.
• Key Risk: Reduce size by 50% before the FOMC decision window. Do not hold full size into Warsh’s first press conference.

Idea 2 — Bearish Reversal on FOMC Hawkish Surprise (Alternative Scenario)

If the FOMC dot plot signals a 2026 rate hike, or if Warsh’s press conference strikes a notably hawkish tone (particularly around inflation projections at 4.2% CPI), EUR/USD could reverse sharply from the 1.1620–1.1640 resistance. This is a post-event trade only — wait for the confirmed reaction.

• Entry: Sell on a confirmed 1H close below 1.1580 following a failed FOMC rally attempt or a direct FOMC-driven spike lower through this level
• Target 1: 1.1530 · Target 2: 1.1490 (retest of the June low)
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.1650
• Risk/Reward: Approximately 1:1.5
• Rationale: EUR/USD is a textbook FOMC binary at this juncture. A hawkish Warsh delivery would reverse USD selling and force a repricing of the EUR/USD recovery, particularly as the 1.1620 area remains meaningful resistance. The pair has already shown it can drop 190 pips quickly — it can do it again on the right catalyst.

Idea 3 — Post-FOMC Breakout (High-Probability Wednesday Night)

Let Wednesday’s FOMC reaction settle, then enter in the direction of the confirmed move after 9:30–10:00 PM Athens time.

• Bullish outcome: Buy a 4H close above 1.1640 after a neutral/dovish Warsh, targeting 1.1720–1.1760
• Bearish outcome: Sell a 4H close below 1.1560 after a hawkish Warsh, targeting 1.1500–1.1490
• Rationale: The cleanest trades this week come after the event, not before it. Tuesday sets up the entry area; Wednesday night reveals the direction.

3. XAU/USD (Gold) — $300+ Recovery Faces Its Biggest Test

Technical Landscape

Gold’s 4-hour chart is one of the most dramatic in recent months. After the May peak around 4,780–4,800, the metal entered a sustained and accelerating decline through all of June, dropping all the way to a multi-week low near 4,030–4,050 by June 11. This was a drawdown of approximately $750 from peak to trough — a correction of historic proportions for gold. The 9 EMA (yellow) remained below the 18 EMA (black) for the entire decline, with the ribbon deeply bearish and both EMAs steeply pointing lower. Then, on June 11–12, a violent reversal began. From the 4,040–4,060 low area, gold rallied explosively, printing a series of large bullish 4H candles and recovering more than $280 to the current level around 4,324–4,330 as of this morning. The 9 EMA has crossed back above the 18 EMA on the 4H chart — a bullish crossover from extreme oversold territory.

The 1-hour chart shows the granular character of this recovery: a sharp spike from the 4,040 lows, consolidation around 4,200–4,220 after the initial momentum candles, then a second acceleration leg that carried price through 4,300 and is now testing the 4,320–4,330 zone. Both EMAs are rising sharply beneath price, with the 9 EMA (orange/yellow) well above the 18 EMA (black), confirming strong short-term momentum. However, the pace of recovery — over $280 in under four days — suggests the market is extended and a consolidation or minor retracement is healthy and likely before the next move.

The medium-term picture: gold has recovered from 4,040 back toward the 4,320–4,330 area, which was significant support-turned-resistance from late May / early June. This zone also roughly aligns with a 50% retracement of the entire correction from the 4,780 highs. This is a confluence resistance area and the most likely zone for price to pause or pull back before the FOMC verdict defines the next directional leg.

Most Likely Bias: Short-Term Bullish Recovery — FOMC the Binary Pivot

The bias is short-term bullish within a medium-term cautious framework. The 4H EMA crossover from deeply oversold levels and the 280-pip recovery from the 4,040 lows are powerful signals that a base has been established. However, the FOMC outcome is gold’s biggest risk event this week. A hawkish Warsh scenario (USD strength, rate hike signaling) would be meaningfully negative for gold. A neutral or dovish outcome preserves the recovery and opens the door to test the 4,400–4,450 zone. Iranian geopolitical risk developments remain a wildcard that can spike gold intraday.

Key Levels to Watch

Resistance

4,330–4,360 — the immediate overhead zone; this morning’s high and the area where the 1H recovery is stalling. Multiple 1H candle tops clustering here. A 4H close above 4,360 opens the next target.

4,420–4,450 — structural resistance from the mid-June decline; the next significant horizontal supply zone on the 4H. Target 2 on a clean FOMC-positive reaction.

4,530–4,560 — major structural resistance from early-to-mid June before the steep sell-off accelerated; the medium-term target only on a continuation of the recovery with a dovish FOMC tailwind.

Support

4,280–4,300 — the first near-term support level; where the 9 EMA on the 4H is approaching. A pullback here during pre-FOMC consolidation would be healthy.

4,200–4,220 — the mid-recovery consolidation zone; a break below here would signal the recovery is losing structural integrity.

4,050–4,080 — the June 11 swing low and the ultimate structural support for this recovery. A return to this area would constitute a full retest of the base and a higher-conviction long entry.

Trade Ideas

Idea 1 — Bullish Continuation (Primary Scenario)

Wait for a pullback from the current 4,320–4,330 resistance to the 4,280–4,300 zone (EMA support on the 4H), then look for a confirmed bullish 1H candle (e.g. bullish engulfing, pin bar) to enter long. If gold holds above 4,280 ahead of Tuesday and moves higher, a 4H close above 4,360 confirms the continuation.

• Entry: Limit buy at 4,285–4,300 on a pullback, or buy on 1H confirmation above 4,360 after a clean breakout
• Target 1: 4,380 · Target 2: 4,430 · Extended: 4,530 if FOMC is neutral/dovish
• Stop-Loss: Below 4,230
• Risk/Reward: Approximately 1:1.8 to 1:2.5
• Rationale: The violent reversal from 4,040 and the 4H EMA bullish crossover signal that a meaningful low is in place. Buying pullbacks toward the rising EMA ribbon is the high-probability strategy in the early stages of a recovery. Persistent geopolitical risk (Iran) and any sign of FOMC neutrality support the long thesis.
• Key Risk: Cut or hedge the position to 50% before Wednesday’s 9:00 PM Athens FOMC decision. A hawkish Warsh could send gold back to test the 4,200 level quickly.

Idea 2 — Bearish Reversal on Hawkish FOMC (Alternative Scenario)

If the FOMC dot plot signals a 2026 rate hike or Warsh strikes a markedly hawkish tone, USD strength would pressure gold sharply. A failure to hold above 4,280 following the FOMC reaction would be the sell signal.

• Entry: Sell on a confirmed 1H close below 4,280, or a re-test of 4,300–4,320 as resistance following the FOMC reaction, with bearish 1H candle confirmation
• Target 1: 4,200 · Target 2: 4,100
• Stop-Loss: Above 4,380
• Risk/Reward: Approximately 1:1.5 to 1:2
• Rationale: Gold recovered $280 in four days on the assumption that the FOMC would remain neutral. A hawkish surprise would unwind this assumption and trigger a fresh wave of de-risking. The 4H EMA ribbon would flip back bearish quickly given how recently the crossover occurred.

Idea 3 — Buy the 4,050–4,100 Dip (Structural Long)

If a combination of a hawkish FOMC, USD strength, and geopolitical de-escalation (Iran progress) sends gold back toward the June 11 low zone, this is the highest-conviction medium-term long setup available.

• Entry: Limit buy at 4,060–4,080, or market entry on a confirmed daily reversal candle (pin bar, morning star) near this zone
• Target 1: 4,200 · Target 2: 4,350 · Extended: 4,450
• Stop-Loss: Below 3,980
• Risk/Reward: Approximately 1:2 to 1:3
• Rationale: The 4,040–4,060 zone established itself as a key demand base on the first test. A re-test would represent a structural higher-low opportunity within the long-term gold bull trend. The macro backdrop — persistent inflation above 4%, elevated geopolitical risk, central bank gold accumulation — remains structurally supportive of gold on any meaningful dip.

Risk Considerations

FOMC Rate Decision + Dot Plot (Wednesday, June 17 — 9:00 PM Athens / 2:00 PM ET): The dominant event of the week. Kevin Warsh’s inaugural press conference as Fed Chair is a binary risk for all three instruments. Do not carry full position size into this event on any of DE40, EUR/USD, or gold. The 4-session week (Juneteenth Thursday) concentrates volatility into Monday through Wednesday.

US Retail Sales for May (Tuesday, June 16 — 3:30 PM Athens / 8:30 AM ET): The last major data point before the FOMC. Strong retail sales reinforces Warsh’s hawkish framing; weak data complicates his narrative and would be USD-negative. This print will set the pre-FOMC tone for EUR/USD and gold particularly.

Jobless Claims (Wednesday, June 17 — released early due to Juneteenth): Comes out the same morning as FOMC day. Unexpected spike in claims (labour market softening) could undercut the hawkish case and be USD-negative — watch for cross-asset whipsaw on Wednesday morning if claims surprise.

US-Iran Geopolitical Developments: Any breakthrough in nuclear talks or conversely any escalation would move gold and energy-linked risk assets sharply. This remains the most unpredictable variable of the week and could override technical setups within minutes.

Juneteenth Holiday (Thursday, June 18): US markets are closed. DE40 will trade but with reduced liquidity and possible gap risk into Friday. Do not initiate new major positions into the Thursday holiday window.

Summary Outlook

The structure of this week is simple: Monday and Tuesday are the setup phase; Wednesday evening is the decision point. The charts all show fresh bullish recoveries — the DE40 reclaiming 25,000, EUR/USD reclaiming 1.1600, and gold recovering from 4,040 to 4,325. These recoveries are real and technically sound. The question is whether Warsh validates them Wednesday or resets the narrative.

The cleanest trade entering the week is the DE40 long on pullback to the EMA ribbon at 24,900–24,950, assuming Warsh delivers a neutral hold — which is still 99%+ priced by markets. For EUR/USD, the preferred approach is to wait for the post-Retail Sales reaction Tuesday to define whether 1.1600 holds as support, then enter accordingly. For gold, manage position size aggressively into FOMC and treat any drop back to 4,050–4,080 as a gift.

Trade the reaction, not the anticipation.

— The FX Hermes Team

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Risk Disclaimer

This Weekly Market Outlook is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or trading signal. All scenarios and probabilities are estimates based on technical analysis and are subject to change. Trading leveraged instruments carries substantial risk of loss. Always use appropriate position sizing, stop losses, and risk management. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stay disciplined. Trade the chart, not the headline.– The FX Hermes Team