Dear Reader,

This weekly outlook for April 20-24, 2026, analyzes DE40, EUR/USD, and XAU/USD as markets brace for a packed macro calendar led by Global PMI Day and several central bank decisions. With volatility expected to peak on Thursday as flash PMIs across major economies hit the tape, we break down the key levels, event risks, and the most probable trade scenarios to help you navigate the week ahead.

Key Themes

Global Flash PMIs (Thursday), China LPR (Monday), US Retail Sales (Tuesday), UK CPI (Wednesday), Germany Ifo Business Climate (Friday), Middle East diplomatic developments.

Market Context: High-Impact Data Meets Technical Inflection Points

The upcoming week represents the most data-dense period of April, dominated by Global PMI Day on Thursday, April 23. Markets will receive the first real look at April’s economic performance across the Eurozone, Germany, the UK, and the US, with flash PMI readings likely to set the tone for the remainder of the month.

On the geopolitical front, diplomatic efforts in the Middle East are providing some breathing room for risk assets, though the ceasefire remains fragile. This dynamic continues to influence both oil prices and safe-haven flows, with implications for EUR/USD and gold.

The macro calendar is front-loaded with event risk. Monday brings China’s LPR decision (loan prime rate) and Canada’s CPI. Tuesday features the UK Unemployment Rate and US Retail Sales – the latter considered a major market mover that will set the dollar’s tone for the first half of the week. Wednesday delivers UK CPI inflation data alongside interest rate decisions from Indonesia and Turkey. Thursday is the main event: Global Flash PMIs for the Eurozone, Germany, the UK, and the US, all releasing in rapid succession. Friday caps the week with the Germany Ifo Business Climate index and UK Retail Sales.

Across all three instruments, price action is approaching key decision points. The path of least resistance favors caution, reduced position sizes ahead of major releases, and strict stop-loss discipline given the heightened volatility expected around Thursday’s PMI cascade.

Weekly Event Risk Impact

• Mon Apr 20: China LPR + Canada CPI — Medium Impact
• Tue Apr 21: UK Unemployment Rate + US Retail Sales — High Impact
• Wed Apr 22: UK CPI + Indonesia/Turkey Rate Decisions — Medium Impact
• Thu Apr 23: Global Flash PMIs (Eurozone, Germany, UK, US) — Very High Impact
• Fri Apr 24: Germany Ifo Business Climate + UK Retail Sales — High Impact
• Ongoing: Middle East Diplomatic Efforts — Medium to High Impact

DE40 (Germany 40 / DAX)

Current Price: 24,649.3
​Weekly Bias: Bullish | 1W Change: +2.6%

Technical Setup

The German index has demonstrated strong bullish momentum recently, fueled by optimism around the Q1 earnings season and a stabilizing European economy. The index is currently up approximately 2.55% from prior week lows and is testing the 24,800 region – a level last seen in early September 2025. The 9 EMA sits above the 18 EMA on both the 4H and daily charts, confirming a short-term bullish structure. Volume has been moderate-to-strong during the rally, indicating genuine buying conviction.

From a structural perspective, the DE40 has fully recovered from the steep March sell-off that took it from ~25,200 down to ~22,000 (a 12.7% decline), before bouncing ~7% off those lows. A golden cross formed in late March on the daily chart, and recent price action has broken above the 24,400 neckline that previously acted as a double top resistance. The export-heavy components of the DAX have shown particular resilience despite euro strength pressures.

However, Thursday’s global PMI data presents the primary risk to the bullish thesis. Germany’s manufacturing PMI has been contracting for 27 consecutive months, and while modest improvement is forecast (to 45.1 from prior levels), any print showing further deterioration could trigger a sharp reversal.

Critical Levels

Resistance: - 24,800 (current ceiling, recent swing high) - 25,100-25,200 (historical high target zone, February peak)

Support: - 24,400 (recent pivot, 9 EMA dynamic support) - 24,100 (major support zone) - 23,800 (strong psychological support, double bottom neckline)

Scenario Analysis

• Bullish Continuation (50%): Reclaim and hold 24,800 targets 25,000-25,100. Supported by positive Ifo data on Friday and stable PMI prints. Highest probability scenario if PMIs remain at or above prior levels.
• Range Consolidation (30%): Oscillation between 24,300-24,700 ahead of PMI data releases. Most likely outcome if early-week data is mixed and markets await Thursday’s catalyst.
• Bearish Rejection (20%): Failure at 24,800 leads to retest of 24,100, then 23,800. Triggered if Global Flash PMIs show contraction (below 50) on Thursday, particularly if Germany’s manufacturing PMI misses forecasts.

Trade Ideas

Pullback Long (Highest Conviction) - Entry: Long at 24,400-24,450 (retest of 9 EMA dynamic support on 4H) - Stop Loss: 24,250 - Targets: T1: 24,800 | T2: 25,100 - Risk/Reward: ~1:2.4 to T1 | ~1:4.4 to T2 - Rationale: Bullish trend intact; 9 EMA has provided reliable support throughout April rally. Export-heavy DAX components resilient despite euro strength. - Catalyst: Positive Germany Ifo data Friday or stable PMI prints.

Breakout Long Above 24,800 - Entry: Long on decisive 4H candle close above 24,850 - Stop Loss: 24,650 - Targets: T1: 25,100 | T2: 25,200 (all-time high zone) - Risk/Reward: ~1:1.7 to T1 | ~1:2.2 to T2 - Rationale: Clear of 24,800 removes last major resistance before historical highs. Volume must confirm breakout.

Event-Driven Short (PMI Contraction) - Entry: Short on Thursday after PMI release – only if Eurozone or Germany PMI shows contraction below 50 - Stop Loss: 24,650 - Targets: T1: 24,100 | T2: 23,800 - Risk/Reward: ~1:2.5 to T1 | ~1:4 to T2 - Catalyst: Global Flash PMIs, Thursday April 23. Expect sharp reversal toward support zone.

Range Fade Short - Entry: Short at 24,750-24,800 (sell resistance ahead of PMIs) - Stop Loss: 24,950 - Targets: T1: 24,400 | T2: 24,100 - Risk/Reward: ~1:1.4 to T1 | ~1:2.3 to T2 - Rationale: 24,800 rejected price previously; low conviction ahead of PMIs signals buyer exhaustion.

Confirmation to Wait For: 4H bullish engulfing or bounce at 24,400 for longs; bearish rejection candle at 24,800 for shorts. Reduce size ahead of Thursday’s PMI releases.

EUR/USD

Current Price: 1.17638 Weekly Bias: Bullish (Constructive) | 1M Change: +1.8%

Technical Setup

After a strong rally from the 1.1500 floor to recent highs near 1.1850, the EUR/USD is currently catching its breath. The pair reached a peak of 1.1850 on April 17 and has since pulled back to consolidate near the 1.1760 swing low. The 4H chart shows the 9 EMA flattening, indicating a short-term pause in momentum, while the daily chart retains a bullish structure with the 9 EMA above the 18 EMA.

The overall sentiment remains constructive for the euro, but the “easy money” from the 1.1500 bounce has been made. The upcoming week will determine whether the euro can transition from a “recovery” to a sustained “bull market.” Key to this transition will be the Flash PMI data for the Eurozone and the US (typically released around April 23). Better-than-expected European PMIs combined with a cooling US services sector could be the catalyst for a push toward 1.2000.

Additionally, any “Beige Book” follow-up commentary from Fed officials will be closely watched, as recent speeches on April 17 have kept the market on edge regarding the timing of rate shifts.

Critical Levels

Resistance: - 1.1850 (immediate ceiling, April 17 high) - 1.1920 (historical supply zone, likely to attract heavy selling) - 1.2000 (psychological target, major bullish extension)

Support: - 1.1760 (recent swing low – holding this is crucial for immediate bullish momentum) - 1.1680 (major breakout zone – the “line in the sand” for the current uptrend) - 1.1500 (previous floor, long-term structural support)

Scenario Analysis

• Bullish Breakout (Most Likely, 50%): Brief consolidation followed by an attempt to clear 1.1850. Supported by better-than-expected Eurozone PMIs or cooling US services data. Target: 1.1920 → 1.2000.
• Deep Retest / Bullish Correction (30%): Pullback to 1.1680 support if Eurozone PMIs disappoint or US manufacturing shows unexpected resilience. This is not a trend change but a healthy correction, offering a dip-buying opportunity.
• Range-Bound Grind (20%): Oscillation between 1.1760 and 1.1840 (70-pip range) as markets await the next month’s central bank meetings. Lacks a major catalyst.

Trade Ideas

Bullish Breakout Long (Highest Conviction) - Entry: Long on daily or 4H candle close above 1.1850 - Stop Loss: 1.1800 - Targets: T1: 1.1920 | T2: 1.2000 - Risk/Reward: ~1:1.4 to T1 | ~1:3 to T2 - Rationale: Break above 1.1850 confirms market has digested recent gains and is ready for next leg up. - Catalyst: Flash PMIs (Thursday, April 23) – Eurozone beat + US miss.

Buy the Dip at Major Support - Entry: Long at 1.1680-1.1690 (limit order at major breakout zone) - Stop Loss: 1.1640 - Targets: T1: 1.1760 | T2: 1.1850 | T3: 1.1920 - Risk/Reward: ~1:2 to T1 | ~1:4 to T2 | ~1:5.7 to T3 - Rationale: 1.1680 is the “line in the sand” for the uptrend. A healthy correction to this level offers an ideal dip-buying entry. - Catalyst: Disappointing Eurozone PMIs or hot US data triggering a corrective pullback.

Range-Bound Fade (Pre-PMI) - Entry Short: Sell near 1.1840 | Entry Long: Buy near 1.1770 - Stop Loss: 15-20 pips outside the range (1.1860 for shorts; 1.1750 for longs) - Targets: Opposite end of the range (1.1770 for shorts; 1.1840 for longs) - Risk/Reward: ~1:3 to 1:4 per trade - Rationale: In the absence of a major catalyst, pair may oscillate within the 70-pip range. Use tight stops as a breakout could be explosive. - Invalidation: Any sustained move 15-20 pips outside 1.1760-1.1840.

Deep Retest Short (Event-Driven) - Entry: Short on break below 1.1760 with 4H candle close below 1.1755 - Stop Loss: 1.1790 - Targets: T1: 1.1685 | T2: 1.1680 (exit for dip-buying entry) - Risk/Reward: ~1:2.5 to T1 | ~1:3.7 to T2 - Rationale: Loss of 1.1760 triggers move to major support at 1.1680 – this is a corrective move, not a trend reversal. - Catalyst: Disappointing Eurozone Flash PMIs or resilient US manufacturing PMI (Thursday). - Recovery Condition: A recovery back above 1.1810 would suggest the correction is over.

Confirmation to Wait For: Daily close above 1.1850 for breakout longs; bullish reversal candle at 1.1680 for dip buys; for range trades, wait for a clear rejection at either boundary with volume. Reduce position size ahead of Thursday’s Flash PMI releases.

XAU/USD (Gold)

Current Price: 4,831.6
​Weekly Bias: Bullish (Constructive) | 1M Change: -2.1%

Technical Setup

Gold continues to be the ultimate battleground between safe-haven demand and a shifting US Dollar. After retreating from recent highs near 5,100, the metal is currently consolidating just above the critical psychological floor of 4,800. Central bank accumulation remains at record levels, providing a massive underlying bid for the metal and supporting the long-term bullish structure.

The 4H chart shows the 9 EMA below the 18 EMA, indicating near-term bearish momentum following the pullback from 5,100. However, the daily chart retains a constructive longer-term bias as long as price holds above the 4,800 support zone. Price action is currently hovering near 4,831.6, having bounced modestly from the 4,800 area.

Key drivers for Gold this week include US Retail Sales on Tuesday (April 21) and Flash PMI data on Thursday (April 23). Stronger-than-expected Retail Sales would bolster the Dollar and likely push Gold lower as markets bet on “higher for longer” interest rates. Conversely, if global manufacturing PMIs show signs of a slowdown, Gold’s appeal as a crisis hedge will increase. Additionally, keep an eye on Treasury auctions from April 20-23 – high yields on US debt can act as a headwind for non-yielding assets like Gold.

Critical Levels

Resistance: - 4,950 (immediate barrier – break above signals return to 5,000) - 5,100 (previous high, major supply zone where sellers recently stepped in) - 5,200+ (extended target on flight-to-safety spike)

Support: - 4,800 (critical psychological floor – long-term bullish structure remains intact above this) - 4,650 (deeper support, aligns with long-term trend lines – major buying opportunity) - 4,550 (previous March correction low)

Scenario Analysis

• Bullish Recovery (Most Likely, 45%): Stabilization near current levels followed by a steady climb toward 4,950 and 5,020. Supported by continued central bank accumulation and neutral-to-weak US data.
• Flight to Safety (Alternative/Bullish Spike, 25%): Geopolitical escalation or significant miss in Flash PMI data triggers rapid safe-haven buying, pushing Gold above 5,100. Assumes US Dollar loses safe-haven appeal in favor of hard assets.
• Range-Bound Consolidation (20%): Churning between 4,800 and 4,950 as markets wait for next major catalyst. Most likely if US Retail Sales comes in “just right” (not too hot, not too cold).
• Bearish Breakdown (10%): Hot US Retail Sales and rising Treasury yields push Gold below 4,800 toward 4,650 support. Dollar strength would be primary driver.

Trade Ideas

Bullish Recovery Long (Highest Conviction) - Entry: Long on stabilization above 4,850 (4H close above this level) - Stop Loss: 4,790 - Targets: T1: 4,950 | T2: 5,020 - Risk/Reward: ~1:2.4 to T1 | ~1:3.2 to T2 - Rationale: Central bank accumulation provides underlying bid; most likely scenario is steady climb from current levels. - Invalidation: Daily close below 4,800.

Flight to Safety Breakout Long - Entry: Long on high-volume break above 4,950 (4H candle close above 4,960) - Stop Loss: 4,880 - Targets: T1: 5,100 | T2: 5,150+ - Risk/Reward: ~1:1.9 to T1 | ~1:2.8 to T2 - Rationale: Geopolitical escalation or significant PMI miss triggers rapid safe-haven buying into hard assets. - Catalyst: Flash PMI miss (Thursday) or unexpected geopolitical headline.

Range-Bound Fade (Pre-Catalyst) - Entry Short: Sell near 4,930-4,950 | Entry Long: Buy near 4,810-4,820 - Stop Loss: 25 pips beyond the range (4,975 for shorts; 4,785 for longs) - Targets: Opposite end of the range (4,810 for shorts; 4,930 for longs) - Risk/Reward: ~1:2 to 1:3 per trade - Rationale: If US Retail Sales comes in “just right”, Gold may churn between 4,800 and 4,950 awaiting next catalyst. - Invalidation: Clean breakout or breakdown beyond 25 pips of range boundaries.

Dip-Buy at Critical Floor - Entry: Long limit order at 4,800-4,810 (psychological support zone) - Stop Loss: 4,760 - Targets: T1: 4,880 | T2: 4,950 - Risk/Reward: ~1:1.6 to T1 | ~1:2.8 to T2 - Rationale: 4,800 is the “line in the sand” for long-term bullish structure. A retest offers a high-probability dip-buy entry.

Event-Driven Short (Hot Retail Sales) - Entry: Short on Tuesday after US Retail Sales – only if print at or above 1.2% MoM (significantly above consensus) - Stop Loss: 4,880 - Targets: T1: 4,800 | T2: 4,650 - Risk/Reward: ~1:1 to T1 | ~1:2.6 to T2 - Rationale: Stronger-than-expected Retail Sales would boost Dollar and “higher for longer” rate bets, pressuring Gold. - Catalyst: US Retail Sales (March), Tuesday April 21, 8:30 AM ET.

Confirmation to Wait For: 4H bullish engulfing or stabilization above 4,850 for recovery longs; high-volume break above 4,950 for flight-to-safety trades. For range trades, wait for clear rejection at boundaries. Reduce size ahead of Tuesday’s Retail Sales and Thursday’s PMIs. Monitor Treasury auction yields throughout the week – rising yields are a headwind for Gold.

This Week’s Catalyst Calendar

Monday, April 20: China’s Interest Rate Decision (LPR) and Canada’s CPI. The LPR decision will set the tone for Asian markets and risk sentiment heading into the week. Medium impact overall; monitor for any unexpected cuts.

Tuesday, April 21: UK Unemployment Rate and US Retail Sales. US Retail Sales is a major market mover. Markets expect retail sales rose around 1% month-on-month in March, though much of the increase is likely driven by higher petrol prices. A significantly weaker print would pressure the dollar (bullish for EUR/USD and gold); a hotter number does the opposite. Core Retail Sales forecast at 0.3% MoM. High impact.

Wednesday, April 22: UK CPI (inflation data) and interest rate decisions for Indonesia and Turkey. UK inflation will influence GBP crosses and provide insight into BoE policy trajectory. Medium impact.

Thursday, April 23 (The Big Day):Global Flash PMIs for the Eurozone, Germany, UK, and US. This is the pivot point for the entire week. Use the flash data to confirm or exit trend-following positions. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI forecast around 51.4; Germany Manufacturing PMI forecast around 45.1 (extending 27 months of contraction); US Manufacturing PMI will also be closely watched. Any readings showing unexpected resilience or contraction will move markets significantly. Very high impact – expect peak volatility.

Friday, April 24: Germany Ifo Business Climate and UK Retail Sales. The Ifo index will provide final confirmation of German economic health for the week. Positive Ifo would support DE40 continuation toward 25,000; a miss would reinforce bearish concerns from Thursday’s PMIs. High impact.

Pro Tip: Consider flattening or reducing exposure 30-60 minutes before US Retail Sales (Tuesday) and the Flash PMI releases (Thursday). Volatility spikes can trigger stops regardless of directional bias. Thursday’s PMI cascade is the most significant event risk of the week – ensure position sizing reflects this.

Recommendations & Next Steps

• Watch the PMIs: Thursday is the pivot point for the week. Use the flash data to confirm or exit trend-following positions in DE40 and EUR/USD. If Eurozone PMIs show unexpected strength, expect euro and DAX upside. If contraction deepens, expect sharp reversals.
• Dollar Sensitivity: Keep a close eye on US Retail Sales on Tuesday (8:30 AM ET); this will set the tone for EUR/USD and gold for the first half of the week. A weak print = dollar weakness = bullish for EUR/USD and gold. A hot print = dollar strength = bearish for both.
• Risk Management: Given the heavy news schedule, expect spikes in volatility, particularly on Thursday. Tighten stop-losses on existing positions before major data releases. Consider reducing size ahead of the PMI cascade.
• Central Bank Watch: Monitor ongoing central bank demand for gold – DBS and OCBC emphasize that “structural drivers” continue to underpin the gold market regardless of monthly fluctuations. This provides a strong floor beneath gold even during dollar-strength periods.
• Geopolitical Monitor: Keep an eye on Middle East diplomatic headlines. An unexpected breakdown in talks could trigger immediate safe-haven flows into gold and the dollar, with corresponding pressure on risk assets like DE40.

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Risk Disclaimer

This Weekly Market Outlook is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or trading signal. All scenarios and probabilities are estimates based on technical analysis and are subject to change. Trading leveraged instruments carries substantial risk of loss. Always use appropriate position sizing, stop losses, and risk management. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stay disciplined. Trade the chart, not the headline.– The FX Hermes Team