Here’s your Weekly Forex & Macro Playbook for August 11–15, 2025

1️⃣ Market Pulse & Key Theme

Last week saw a mixed sentiment across global markets. While some equity markets, particularly in the US, showed resilience and even pushed to new highs, there was a noticeable retreat towards the end of the week driven by disappointing US employment data and concerns over China’s manufacturing sector. The US Dollar showed some seasonal strengthening against certain currencies, though global yields exhibited a downside bias. The overall narrative leaned towards a cautious optimism, with investors balancing growth prospects against lingering geopolitical and economic uncertainties.

For the coming week, the single most important catalyst to watch will likely be the upcoming inflation data, particularly the CPI figures from major economies. These releases will provide crucial insights into the trajectory of monetary policy from central banks like the Fed and ECB, directly impacting currency pairs like EURUSD and influencing broader market risk appetite. Sentiment gauges, including the latest COT reports and the VIX index, suggest a degree of underlying caution, with some stretched valuations in equities indicating potential for increased volatility.

2️⃣ Event Watch (Actionable Calendar)

Here are the top high-impact events to watch this week:

• Date/Time (GMT): Monday, August 11, 07:00
  • Instrument Impact: DE40, EURUSD
  • Event: Industrial Production MoM (Germany)
  • Consensus Expectation: -0.2%
  • Potential Market Reaction: A beat could signal resilience in the Eurozone economy, potentially strengthening the EUR and supporting DE40. A miss could weigh on both.
  • Mini trading tip: Pay close attention to the German industrial data as it often provides an early indication of broader Eurozone economic health.
• Date/Time (GMT): Tuesday, August 12, 12:30
  • Instrument Impact: EURUSD, XAUUSD
  • Event: CPI YoY (US)
  • Consensus Expectation: 2.8%
  • Potential Market Reaction: A higher-than-expected CPI could strengthen the USD and put downward pressure on Gold, as it might signal a more hawkish Fed. A lower reading could weaken the USD and support Gold.
  • Mini trading tip: Consider reducing leverage pre-CPI, volatility spike likely. This is a major market mover.
• Date/Time (GMT): Tuesday, August 12, 12:30
  • Instrument Impact: EURUSD, XAUUSD
  • Event: Core CPI (US)
  • Consensus Expectation: 0.3%
  • Potential Market Reaction: Similar to headline CPI, core inflation is crucial for Fed policy. A strong core CPI reinforces hawkish expectations, impacting USD and Gold.
  • Mini trading tip: Look for divergence between headline and core CPI, as core is often a better indicator of underlying inflation trends.
• Date/Time (GMT): Wednesday, August 13, 09:00
  • Instrument Impact: EURUSD, DE40
  • Event: ZEW Economic Sentiment (Germany)
  • Consensus Expectation: 50.8 (July; August not yet available)
  • Potential Market Reaction: A stronger sentiment reading could boost the EUR and DE40, indicating improved economic outlook. A weaker reading could have the opposite effect.
  • Mini trading tip: This survey provides a forward-looking view of economic expectations, which can influence investor confidence.
• Date/Time (GMT): Thursday, August 14, 12:30
  • Instrument Impact: EURUSD, XAUUSD
  • Event: Retail Sales MoM (US)
  • Consensus Expectation: 0.1%
  • Potential Market Reaction: Strong retail sales indicate robust consumer spending, which is positive for the USD and could be negative for Gold. Weak sales could have the opposite effect.
  • Mini trading tip: Consumer spending is a significant component of GDP, so strong retail sales data can signal economic strength.

3️⃣ Instrument Deep Dives

A) EURUSD

• Current Price Context – EURUSD closed last week around 1.1642, showing a slight downtrend after reaching a high of 1.169 earlier in the week. The pair has been trading below key moving averages, indicating a bearish bias in the short term. The overall trend remains sensitive to central bank rhetoric and incoming economic data.
• Key Levels –
  • S1: 1.1570 (Previous swing low, psychological support)
  • S2: 1.1500 (Strong psychological support, potential Fibonacci retracement level)
  • R1: 1.1680 (Recent swing high, resistance from 50-day MA)
  • R2: 1.1750 (Key resistance level, prior consolidation area)
• Fundamental Driver – The primary fundamental drivers for EURUSD this week will be the US CPI data and any further commentary from the ECB or Fed officials. A stronger-than-expected US inflation report could bolster the USD, pushing EURUSD lower, as it would reinforce expectations of a hawkish Fed. Conversely, any dovish signals from the Fed or stronger Eurozone data could provide support for the EUR.
• Trade Idea Short-term Sell (Contingent on US CPI)
• Rationale: Given the current neutral technical stance and the potential for US CPI to strengthen the USD, a short-term sell idea could be considered. If US CPI comes in higher than expected, it could trigger a downward move.
• Entry: Consider entering a sell position if EURUSD breaks below the day’s low of 1.16287 after the US CPI release, confirming bearish momentum.
• Stop Loss: Place a stop loss above the previous day’s close or a recent resistance level, e.g., 1.16800.
• Take Profit: Target the next significant support level, potentially around 1.15800 or lower, depending on the strength of the CPI data.
• Risk Management: Use a small position size due to the volatility expected around the CPI release. Monitor price action closely.

B) XAUUSD (Gold)

• Current Price Context – Gold (XAUUSD) is currently trading around $3397.79, having seen a slight increase over the past week. The price remains sensitive to shifts in real yields and USD strength. While it has shown resilience, it is still capped below the $3400 psychological resistance level.
• Key Levels –
  • S1: $3385 (Immediate support, prior consolidation)
  • S2: $3350 (Strong support, potential Fibonacci level)
  • R1: $3407 (Recent resistance, potential breakout level)
  • R2: $3486 (Key resistance, prior swing high)
• Fundamental Driver – Gold’s movement this week will be heavily influenced by US real yields and the direction of the US Dollar, especially after the CPI data. Historically, gold has an inverse correlation with real interest rates; when real yields go down, gold tends to go up. A weaker USD also makes gold cheaper for international buyers, increasing demand. Safe-haven demand, driven by geopolitical tensions or economic uncertainty, continues to provide underlying support for gold. Any signs of increased inflation or economic instability could boost gold’s appeal.
• Trade IdeaShort-term Buy (Contingent on US CPI and market sentiment)
• Rationale: The overall bullish trend and strong performance suggest continued upward potential, especially if inflation concerns persist or increase after the US CPI release.
• Entry: Consider entering a buy position if XAUUSD breaks above the day’s high of 3,409.430, confirming bullish momentum. Alternatively, look for a pullback to a support level around 3,380-3,390 for a more conservative entry.
• Stop Loss: Place a stop loss below a recent support level, e.g., 3,370.00.
• Take Profit: Target the next resistance level, potentially around 3,420.00 or higher, depending on market reaction.
• Risk Management: Be mindful of potential volatility around economic data releases. Adjust position size accordingly.

C) DE40 (DAX)

• Current Price Context – The DE40 (DAX) index is currently trading around 24202 points, having shown a slight gain recently. The index has been in an uptrend, but some cracks have appeared as it approaches all-time highs. Investor sentiment remains generally positive, but is sensitive to economic data and geopolitical developments.
• Key Levels –
  • S1: 24000 (Psychological support, prior consolidation)
  • S2: 23800 (Strong support, 50-day MA)
  • R1: 24300 (Recent resistance, potential breakout level)
  • R2: 24650 (All-time high, strong resistance)
• Fundamental Driver – The DE40 will be primarily driven by German and Eurozone economic data, particularly industrial production and ZEW economic sentiment. Stronger data could fuel optimism and push the index higher. Equities sentiment, influenced by global risk appetite and corporate earnings, will also play a significant role. Any negative surprises in earnings reports from major German companies or a downturn in global sentiment could weigh on the index. Talk of ECB rate cuts or other monetary policy shifts will also be a key factor.
• Trade IdeaLong-term Buy (Contingent on European economic data)
• Rationale: The strong bullish sentiment on longer timeframes and the proximity to all-time highs suggest that the DE40 could continue its upward trajectory, especially if European economic data is favorable.
• Entry: Consider entering a buy position on a pullback to a support level, such as 24,100-24,150, or on a confirmed breakout above the recent high of 24,307.60.
• Stop Loss: Place a stop loss below a significant support level, e.g., 23,900.
• Take Profit: Target new all-time highs, potentially around 24,700-25,000.
• Risk Management: Monitor European economic data closely. Be aware of potential profit-taking near all-time highs. Consider scaling into positions.

4️⃣ Intermarket Insight

Intermarket analysis reveals crucial relationships that can offer additional trading insights. Gold (XAUUSD) often exhibits an inverse correlation with the US Dollar (DXY), meaning a stronger USD can cap gold rallies, and vice-versa. This dynamic will be particularly relevant this week with the upcoming US CPI data, as a strong inflation print could boost the dollar and weigh on gold. Conversely, EURUSD and XAUUSD tend to have a moderate positive correlation, implying they often move in the same direction, though gold can experience more rapid price swings due to its safe-haven appeal.

The DE40 (DAX) index, being a major European equity benchmark, often shows an inverse correlation with the Euro (EUR). A weaker Euro can make German exports more competitive, potentially boosting corporate earnings and supporting the DE40. However, the DE40 also has a strong positive correlation with major US stock indices, reflecting global risk sentiment. Therefore, while a strong Euro might weigh on the DE40, a broad risk-on environment in global equities could still provide support. Traders should watch for divergences or convergences in these correlations to identify potential cross-market opportunities or hedges, such as using a long DE40 position to hedge against a short EURUSD position if the Eurozone outlook improves but the Euro remains weak.

5️⃣ Weekly Wrap & Lesson Learned

As this is the inaugural newsletter, there are no previous calls to review. However, a crucial lesson for every trader is the importance of adapting to new information. Markets are dynamic, and initial biases or trade ideas can quickly become invalid with new data releases or shifts in sentiment. The actionable takeaway for the coming week is to remain flexible and be prepared to adjust your positions or strategies based on the high-impact economic events, particularly the US CPI data.

6️⃣ Trading Psychology / Risk Tip

Remember, patience pays in breakout setups. Don’t chase trades. Wait for clear confirmation of a breakout or breakdown, and always ensure your risk management is in place before entering a trade. Overtrading, especially during high-volatility events, can quickly erode your capital. Stick to your plan.

7️⃣ Closing Outlook

• EURUSD: Bearish bias in the short-term, with potential for further downside if US CPI is strong. Key support at 1.1570.
• XAUUSD: Neutral to slightly bearish bias, highly dependent on US CPI and USD strength. Key resistance at $3407.
• DE40: Bullish bias, but approaching strong resistance levels. German economic data will be key.

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Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk and always apply proper risk management (position sizing, stop-losses, and discipline).